Through four games, Florida State has passed each test on its schedule. They took care of LSU by multiple scores on a neutral site, and they beat Clemson in Death Valley for the first time since 2013.
Seminole fans surely hope that’s not the last time they hear the phrase “for the first time since 2013” this season, but just because they vanquished Dabo Swinney doesn’t mean they should start engraving their names on the ACC trophy. At least, ESPN FPI doesn’t think so.
The Seminoles have finally climbed above a 50% chance to win the conference this week, but the models have the Seminoles as the 10th-best team in the country. Their in-state rivalry, the Miami Hurricanes, remain undefeated and sit just 15th, maybe more of a threat than FSU fans anticipate.
Here’s how ESPN’s models have the ACC after Week 5.
| Team | Record | Conference Record | FPI (National Rank) | Win Conference % | Make Playoff % |
| Florida State Seminoles | 4-0 | 2-0 | 19.9 (10th) | 50.8% | 27.5% |
| Miami Hurricanes | 4-0 | 0-0 | 16.7 (15th) | 18.2% | 9.4% |
| Clemson Tigers | 3-2 | 1-2 | 16.1 (17th) | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 4-0 | 1-0 | 12.8 (21st) | 8.9% | 2.7% |
| Syracuse Orange | 4-1 | 0-1 | 12.0 (22nd) | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 4-1 | 1-0 | 11.4 (23rd) | 7.1% | 0.6% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 5-0 | 3-0 | 10.3 (27th) | 10.1% | 0.7% |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 3-2 | 1-1 | 2.2 (52nd) | 0.1% | — |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0.9 (58th) | — | — |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 2-3 | 1-1 | -0.7 (67th) | — | — |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 3-1 | 0-1 | -0.9 (70th) | — | — |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 2-3 | 1-0 | -1.6 (71st) | 0.1% | — |
| Boston College Eagles | 2-3 | 1-2 | -6.6 (94th) | — | — |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 0-5 | 0-2 | -7.2 (97th) | — | — |