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The Texas Rangers (90-72) and the Tampa Bay Rays (99-63) play Game 1 of the American League Wild Card series on Tuesday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Rangers won 4-2
The Rangers frittered away a lead in the final week to lose grip on the AL West title, dropping into a Wild Card series with the 99-win Rays. Texas won 4 of the 6 regular-season meetings but lost 2 of 3 games in St. Petersburg from June 9-11. While the Under cashed in all 3 meetings in Arlington this season, the Over was 3-0 at “The Trop”.
The Rangers limped to the finish line of the regular season, dropping 3 of 4 games in Seattle over the final weekend, playing just 9 total runs. Texas cashed the Under at a 4-0-1 clip in the final 5 games.
The Rays just missed the 2nd-ever 100-win season in franchise history, winning 99 games. Tampa Bay finished strong, going 4-1 in the final 5 outings, while cashing the Over at a 10-1 clip in the final 11 contest of the regular season.
At home, though, Tampa Bay was a mediocre 3-3 in the final 6 regular-season games, while Texas went just 3-7 in the final 10 regular-season road contests.
Rangers at Rays projected starters
LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. LHP Tyler Glasnow
Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA) makes his 2nd career postseason start. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 188 2/3 innings with the St. Louis Cardinals and Rangers across 32 starts in the regular season.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road loss vs. the Mariners on Thursday
- 2023 road splits: 3-6, 2.73 ERA (89 IP, 27 ER), 8 HR, .227 OBA in 15 starts
Glasnow (10-7, 3.53 ERA) makes his 10th career postseason start. He had a 1.08 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 120 innings across 21 starts.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 5-0 road win vs. the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 4-3, 3.18 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 5 HR, .163 OBA in 10 starts
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Rangers at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-165) | Rays -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Rangers at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Rangers 2
Moneyline
The RAYS (-150) are a decent play at home with Glasnow on the bump. He was untouchable at home, with teams hitting just .163 against him across 56 2/3 IP in 10 starts under the dome. That includes the southpaw’s effort on June 9, when Glasnow gave up just a solo HR as the only hit allowed in 6 IP in an 8-3 victory against the Rangers.
Run line/Against the spread
The RAYS -1.5 (+140) are worth playing on the run line, but go lightly.
I trust Glasnow at home, even if he has been uneven in the postseason in the past, over Montgomery. The Rangers +1.5 (-165) also don’t have the playoff experience like the Rays do.
While Tampa Bay is 11-4 in the past 15 games straight up as a favorite, it cashed on the run line at just a 9-8 clip in the past 17 when favored, so tread lightly.
Over/Under
The UNDER 7.5 (-110) is a low number, but we should get a well-pitched game with runs at a premium, especially early on.
Be careful, though, as Tampa Bay hit the Over in 10 of its final 11 regular-season games, while the total went high in the final 9 home games in regular season, too. The Over was also 3-0 in the 3 meetings between these teams in St. Pete.
However, regular season is regular season, and the postseason is a different animal. Pitching and defense should reign supreme in the opener.
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