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The Tampa Bay Rays (96-62) and Boston Red Sox (76-81) close out a 2-game set at Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 10-2
The Rays held on for a 9-7 victory over the Red Sox Tuesday. They stormed out to a 7-0 lead in the first 3 innings before Boston chipped away to make it 7-6. Tampa added 2 insurance runs in the 8th inning. The Rays have traded wins and losses over their last 8 games and sit 2 1/2 games out in the AL East with 4 to go. They have clinched the top AL Wild Card spot.
The Red Sox put up a fight, but they dug too deep of a hole early — very reminiscent of their season. Boston has been eliminated from the postseason and has lost 3 in a row and 5 of 6. The Sox are 9-21 over the last 30 games.
Rays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Glasnow (9-7, 3.68 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 through 115 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 K Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays
- Last 5 regular-season starts against Red Sox: 2-0, 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 43 K in 28 IP
Bello (12-10, 4.11 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 151 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 2 K last Wednesday against Texas Rangers
- 4 career starts vs. Rays: 1-2, 6.75 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 19 K in 20 IP
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Rays at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Rays 4
Moneyline
Glasnow has allowed 14 ER in 15 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts. However, he shut the Red Sox down in the start before that for 1 ER over 6 IP with 14 K’s. With the Rays’ inability to string together wins, and the momentum Boston garnered nearly coming back Monday night, I look for the Red Sox to get to Tampa’s pen.
Take the RED SOX (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
None of the last 10 games between these teams were decided by 1 run and if you’re feeling the Red Sox like I am, there’s no point in taking -165 for a run of insurance.
PASS.
Over/Under
Three of the last 4 meetings have gone Over, and the Over is 6-4 in the last 10 games. Tampa has now scored at least 3 runs in 8 of 10 games. Boston’s offense has done it in 6 of 10. Glasnow doesn’t go deep into games, and if the Red Sox can wait him out, this should sneak past the finish line.
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).
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