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The Toronto Blue Jays (85-67) and New York Yankees (76-76) cap off a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Blue Jays lead 5-4
Toronto has won 5 straight games but that streak comes on the heels of a 4-game losing skid from Sept. 11-14. The Blue Jays have gone 6-2 in September road games with an .880 OPS.
The Yankees have lost 3 in a row. Two of those 3 games have been at Yankee Stadium, where the club is just 4-11 since Aug. 6. New York has lost 3 of its last 4 games against Toronto; all 3 losses have been by margins of 3 runs or more.
Blue Jays at Yankees projected starters
RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Gerrit Cole
Berrios (11-10, 3.49 ERA) is tabbed for his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 178 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-0 home win vs. Boston Red Sox Friday
- 2023 road stats: 5-3, 3.83 ERA in 94 IP across 16 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Yankees: 1-3, 5.28 ERA in 29 IP (2022-23)
Cole (13-4, 2.81 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has registered a 1.05 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 192 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K in 7-5 win at Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2023 home stats: 8-2, 3.01 ERA in 104 2/3 IP across 17 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays: 1-1, 3.03 ERA in 29 2/3 IP (2022-23)
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Blue Jays at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Yankees -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Blue Jays at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4
Moneyline
The Blue Jays have hit the moneyline in 30 of their last 46 road games (+9.20 units, 15% ROI).
However, Cole is the leveler here, and that’s what top-shelf pitching does in this game despite that these clubs are headed in different directions. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
More juice here and even less interest. PASS.
Over/Under
Yankees home games have cashed on the Over in 20 of the club’s last 33 games. (+7.75 units, 21% ROI).
There are some analytics vs. actual results that peg both starters as being vulnerable. Both have very friendly batting-average-on-balls-in-play rates with runners in scoring position. Berrios has run into more frequent hard contact in recent outings and owns a 5.52 ERA across 6 all-time starts at Yankee Stadium. Cole uncharacteristically walked 3 batters in his last start.
In a zag move against the public and with a nice price here, BACK THE OVER 7 (-115).
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