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The Baltimore Orioles (93-56) and Houston Astros (84-66) clash Monday to open a 3-game series. First pitch at Minute Maid Park is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Houston leads 2-1
Baltimore has clinched its first postseason appearance since 2016, learning the news when the Texas Rangers lost to the Cleveland Guardians before the Orioles’ 5-4, 11-inning contest against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays was complete. Baltimore suffered a 4-game losing streak last week, but is still a robust 16-8 over its last 24 games.
Houston is back at home after dropping 2 of 3 at the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. The Astros have been playing with their food a bit when it comes to closing out the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Houston, which leads the West by 1 1/2 games, is just 7-8 this month.
Orioles at Astros projected starters
LHP John Means vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Means (career: 20-25, 3.83 ERA) is making just his 2nd start of the season. His Sept. 12 start against the St. Louis Cardinals marked his 1st MLB action in 517 days after dealing with back and elbow injuries.
- Last start: Loss,5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K in 5-2 home loss vs. Cardinals Tuesday
- Owns a career road ERA of 3.66
- Has never faced the Astros as a starter
Verlander (11-8, 3.39 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 143 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 7 K in 6-2 home loss vs. Oakland Athletics Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 6-5, 3.14 ERA in 80 1/3 IP across 13 starts (for New York Mets and Astros)
- Last 5 starts vs. Orioles: 0-1, 3.16 ERA in 25 2/3 IP
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Orioles at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:41 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Astros -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Orioles at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Orioles 4
Moneyline
Peg the Orioles as being farther out of their skis than the Astros, and Baltimore may have some hangover/minor league roster effect in Monday’s tilt. But the line has been steaming toward Houston, and there is some Verlander fade that makes that side unattractive at the current price. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
With less juice here, the Houston side a bit more attractive. PASS for now, but if things sway back to the visitors a bit, a Houston -1.5 +120 would be worth some action.
Over/Under
The Orioles have hit the Over in 42 of their last 74 away games (+13.60 units, 17% ROI). The Astros have hit the Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.70 units, 23% ROI). The Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Baltimore-Houston games.
Both offenses sport OPS figures over recent weeks that have eclipsed season averages. Houston is on its best platoon side against left-handed pitching (.809 OPS).
Second starts off an IL stint are often fraught with extra fatigue and should usually be avoided. Two of Verlander’s 3 starts this month have been clunkers, and his home line is buoyed by a .252 batting average on balls in play.
Both clubs have somewhat suspect bullpen surface-ERA figures over the last month or so. Both pens have ridden sub-.270 BABIPs since Aug. 1.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-110).
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