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The Chicago Cubs (78-69) and Arizona Diamondbacks (76-72) open a weekend series on Friday, with 1st pitch from Chase Field at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 3-1
The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 games, a stretch that started last weekend against Arizona, when they dropped 3 of 4 games at Wrigley Field.
Since their 4-game win streak came to an end last week, the Diamondbacks have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are currently in a 3-way tie for the final Wild Card spot, and 2 1/2 games behind the Cubs, so this is a huge series.
Cubs at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Justin Steele vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Steele (16-3, 2.49 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 159 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Saturday
- Road stats: 4-1, 3.00 ERA (60 IP, 20 ER) in 10 starts
- Career vs. D-backs: 0-0, 1.00 ERA (18 IP, 2 ER) with 12.5 K/9 in 3 starts
Pfaadt (1-8, 6.25 ERA) makes his 17th appearance (16th start). He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 80 2/3 innings.
- Last appearance: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-2 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. He entered the game in the 3rd inning and went the rest of the way
- Home stats: 1-5, 7.30 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 33 ER) with 8.9 K/9 in 9 starts. An inflated .381 BABIP has played a large role in his struggles at home
- Since being called back up from the minors in late July, he has a 4.58 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 1.8 HR/9 in 10 outings (9 starts)
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Cubs at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+120) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cubs at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
Steele has allowed more than 3 ER just twice in his 27 starts to date. He has really been on a roll lately, as he has posted a 1.89 ERA with a 46/5 K/BB in in 38 IP across his last 6 starts. Arizona ranks 23rd in wRC+ vs lefties, so look for Steele to keep rolling and for the CUBS (-140) to come out on top.
Run line/Against the spread
Pfaadt has been better in his 2nd go around in the majors and is facing a Chicago offense that is middle of the pack in production vs right-handed pitching, as they rank 14th in wRC+ against them. The rookie should keep his team fairly close, and the preferred line is the moneyline, so PASS on this.
Over/Under
Both offenses come into this game on a bit of a cold streak. The Cubs have scored just 21 runs in their last 7 games, while Arizona has been even worse, with just 16 runs scored over that same span (2.3 per game).
Steele should continue to excel in this matchup and Pfaadt’s recent performance suggests he should be able to avoid disaster and at least keep his team in the game. Neither offense appears primed for a big day and a small wager on UNDER 8.5 (-105) looks like the play here.
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