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The Arizona Diamondbacks (76-71) and New York Mets (67-78) wrap up a 4-game set Thursday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 5-1
The Diamondbacks lost 7-1 as -154 favorites in the 3rd game of the series Wednesday. Arizona has lost 3 of its last 4 outings and is tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Mets DH Mark Vientos hit a 2-run HR in the 6th inning as they improved to 18-4 in their last 22 games vs. the Diamondbacks. The Mets have won 3 of their last 4 outings after snapping a 3-game losing skid Sunday.
Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Kodai Senga
Kelly (11-6, 3.16 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 154 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 3-2 road victory in 10 innings vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 7-2, 3.53 ERA (74 IP, 29 ER) in 13 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.81 ERA (26 IP, 11 ER) in 4 starts
Senga (10-7, 3.07 ERA) makes his 27th start. The rookie has a 1.23 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 149 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 5-2 road loss vs. Minnesota Twins Friday
- 2023 home stats: 5-3, 2.52 ERA (82 IP, 23 ER) in 14 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 K in 1 start, a 2-1 road win on July 5
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Diamondbacks at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 3, Diamondbacks 2
Moneyline
The METS (-120) have owned the Diamondbacks this season, and Senga’s splits at home are much better than Kelly’s on the road. The Mets seem to be playing better now that the pressure of meeting preseason expectations has been lifted off their shoulders and I expect them to take this series Thursday with Senga is on the mound at home.
BET METS (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
It’s unlikely that the Mets will beat the Diamondbacks by multiple runs in 3 straight games. Arizona +1.5 (-210) will probably hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when New York ML is the better play.
PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.
Over/Under
The Under is 41-25 (62.1%) this season when the Mets are coming off a win, according to TeamRankings.com. Kelly and Senga are both capable starters, and I believe they’ll pitch well enough to keep this game under the low total.
LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).
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