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The Seattle Mariners (79-62) and the Tampa Bay Rays (86-56) play the 3rd contest of a 4-game series Saturday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 3-2
The Mariners eked out a 1-0 win Thursday night in a pitcher’s duel behind RHP Luis Castillo, but the Rays exacted a little revenge with a 7-4 win behind RHP Taj Bradley and the bullpen Friday. The Over and Under have split in the first 2 games of this series, but the Over has cashed in 4 of 5 meetings on the season.
Seattle has been spinning its wheels lately, winning just 4 of its last 10 games, with the Over going 3-1 in the past 4 outings.
Tampa Bay has picked up 3 victories in its last 4 outings and is 14-6 in its last 20 games overall. The Over holds a 3-2 edge across the past 5 games.
The Mariners will skip rookie RHP Bryan Woo‘s start Saturday and go with a bullpen day instead. RHP Luke Weaver will reportedly be the “bulk” pitcher for Saturday’s game, according to the Seattle Times. Weaver hasn’t tossed more than 3 2/3 innings since joining the Mariners.
Mariners at Rays projected starters
RHP Luke Weaver vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Weaver (2-5, 6.71 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 106 innings for the Mariners and Cincinnati Reds.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H (2 HR), 0 BB and 0 K in 3-1 home loss vs. the Oakland Athletics Aug. 29
- 2023 road splits: 1-4, 6.05 ERA (61 IP, 41 ER), 12 HR, .296 opponent batting average (OBA) in 12 starts and 2 relief appearances
Civale (7-3, 2.76 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 107 2/3 innings for the Rays and Cleveland Guardians.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 12 K in 7-3 home loss vs. the Boston Red Sox Monday
- 2023 home splits: 3-1, 3.48 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 3 HR, .218 OBA in 9 starts
- 2023 vs. Seattle: 1-1, 2.84 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0 HR, 2 BB, 8 K in 2 starts (both with Guardians)
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Mariners at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Rays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 6, Mariners 3
Moneyline
The RAYS (-125) are a strong play behind Civale. He was really evolving into a strong pitcher with the Guardians and was the de facto No. 1 guy there at times due to injuries, etc. He has grown into a solid rotation guy and is making Rays GM Erik Neander look very smart.
As long as Civale can keep OF Teoscar Hernandez somewhat in check, he’ll be just fine. Hernandez is working on a career-high 17-game hitting streak, batting .397 (27-for-68) with 7 HR and 20 RBI, for those interested in prop bets.
Run line/Against the spread
The RAYS -1.5 (+155) are worth a look on the run line. In the past 11 games when favored, Tampa Bay has covered the run line at a 7-4 clip. They’re 5-2 in the past 7 games at home, covering 4 of 5 games on the run line as favorites during that span.
Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-105) is worth playing, but go very lightly.
Weaver is expected to get a bulk of the innings as an opener in a bullpen game, and he has been very giving. The Rays should get to him and the rest of the Mariners hurlers. The Over has a 3-2 edge in the past 5 games for Tampa Bay.
For Seattle, the Over is 4-2-1 in the past 7 games overall and is 8-4-1 in the past 13 games on the road, too.
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