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The Boston Red Sox (71-66) and the Tampa Bay Rays (83-54) open a 3-game series Monday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 7-1
The Red Sox bounced back from a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros to start last week by winning 2 of 3 games on the road against the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. It’s been all about the Over for Boston lately, going an amazing 15-1-1 in its last 17 games overall.
The Rays dropped the first 2 games in Cleveland but avoided being swept by the Guardians with a 6-2 victory in the finale on Sunday. Quite the opposite of Boston, the Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games overall for Tampa Bay.
Red Sox at Rays projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Bello (10-8, 3.57 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 131 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 4 H, 2 BB and 2 K in 6-2 home loss vs. Astros Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 6-2, 3.73 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 10 HR, .268 opponent batting average (OBA) in 10 starts
Civale (7-3, 2.64 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 102 1/3 innings for the Guardians and Rays.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in an 11-2 road win vs. the Miami Marlins last Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 3-1, 3.31 ERA (49 IP, 18 ER), 3 HR, .228 OBA in 8 starts
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Red Sox at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Rays -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-175) | Rays -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Red Sox 3
The RAYS (-140) are a decent play in this divisional series opener.
Tampa Bay has dominated the season series so far, winning 7 of the first 8 meetings this season. The Red Sox have actually fared well in Bello’s starts on the road, going 4-1 across his past 5 outings away from home.
However, he has had an issue with free passes, walking at least 2 batters in 6 of his past 8 outings, and that simply won’t do against a solid Tampa Bay side.
Run line/Against the spread
The RED SOX +1.5 (-175) are worth playing lightly if you want a little insurance on the road team, and you just can’t take Boston straight up. The BoSox are a respectable 3-3 in the past 6 games as underdogs on the run line, winning all 3 of those contests outright.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-120) is the lean, but go lightly.
While the Over has dominated for the Red Sox lately, going 15-1-1 in the past 17 games overall, the Under has cashed in 3 straight meetings between these teams. That includes a start by Bello at Fenway Park in the most recent meeting on June 5.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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