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The Cleveland Guardians (63-70) and the Minnesota Twins (69-64) wrap up a 3-game set Wednesday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 5-4
The Guardians doubled up the Twins by a 4-2 score Tuesday, avenging a series-opener loss. Cleveland pulled back to 7 games behind Minnesota for the top spot in the AL Central. The Guardians are 3-2 across the past 5 games, while the Over has hit in 3 of the previous 4 outings.
The Twins entered play Tuesday with 45 runs across the previous 6 outings, and the Over had been on a 6-0-1 run until the Under (7.5) result Tuesday. Minnesota is still a healthy 4-2 across the past 6 contests.
Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Bibee (10-3, 3.01 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 119 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K in 5-2 road win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- 2023 road splits: 5-1, 3.94 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 11 HR, 1.39 WHIP, .275 opponent batting average (OBA) in 11 starts
- 2023 vs. Minnesota: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K at Target Field on June 1
Gray (7-6, 3.06 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 150 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H (solo HR), 0 BB, 4 K in 12-2 home win vs. Texas Rangers Friday
- 2023 home splits: 4-3, 3.05 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 3 HR, 1.16 WHIP, .233 OBA in 13 starts
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Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-155) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Guardians 3
The TWINS (-165) are moderate favorites, but they’re a strong play, and there is little “Gray” area, pun totally intended. Sorry, that was bad.
The Guardians have gotten tremendous pitching from Bibee this season, as he has emerged as one of their most dependable arms. However, he has been a little more giving on the road, serving up 11 of his 13 home runs in road parks.
Run line/Against the spread
The TWINS -1.5 (+140) are worth a look again on the run line, as they try to get back on the winning track.
Minnesota covered the run line as the favorite Monday night in the series opener but lost outright as the favorite Tuesday. The Twins are still 4-1 in the previous 5 outings on the run line as a favorite since Aug. 20. Feel confident backing Minnesota in the series finale against the skidding Guardians.
Over/Under
Over/Under 7.5 should be avoided, as I expect the total to come down too close to the number.
Bibee has served up plenty of homers on the road, as opposed to his splits at home. However, he has done a very good job limiting the damage. Gray shut down the high-octane Rangers last time out at home, and he appears to be regaining his All-Star form after losing it for a while in July.
There isn’t a strong lean either way on the total, so AVOID.
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