New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans odds, picks and predictions

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The New England Patriots (1-1) visit the Tennessee Titans (1-1) Friday in the final week of the NFL preseason. Kickoff from Nassan Stadium is at 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Patriots vs. Titans odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

New England picked up a 21-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers in an abbreviated preseason game on Saturday. The game ended with 10:29 remaining in the 4th quarter as Patriots CB Isaiah Bolden was carted off with an apparent head injury following a collision with a teammate. Bolden remained in the hospital overnight and was released Sunday morning; the team canceled joint practices with the Titans this week and headed home to regroup.

QB Mac Jones made his preseason debut, completing 6-of-9 passes for 52 yards. Newly acquired RB Ezekiel Elliott did not appear in the game; RB Rhamondre Stevenson ran with the starters, picking up 27 yards and a TD on 4 carries.

Tennessee also recorded a victory in its 2nd preseason game, knocking off the Minnesota Vikings 24-16 Saturday. QB Malik Willis played the complete game, connecting of 10-of-17 passes for 85 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and adding 91 rushing yards on 11 carries. Rookie RB Tajae Spears finished with 57 yards on 7 carries while RB Julius Chestnut paced the backfield with 98 yards on 13 carries. Starters rested on both sides of the ball for both teams.

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Patriots at Titans odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:25 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Patriots -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Titans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots -2 (-110) | Titans +2 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Patriots at Titans picks and predictions

Prediction

Titans 20, Patriots 17

Moneyline

The Packers moved the ball efficiently on the ground against the Patriots in the 2nd week of the preseason, recording 119 yards and a TD on 29 carries. RBs Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and Emanuel Wilson helped move the sticks comfortably.

The Titans’ primary offense focus is the ground game. Tennessee had 40 carries as a team last week, with Chestnut, Willis and Spears all averaging over 7 yards per carry. If the Titans prioritize the run as they did against the Vikings they should find success against the Patriots reserves.

New England is also likely to feature plenty of QBs Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham. Either by design, or by the shortened game, neither played in the 2nd week of the preseason. However, neither looked particularly impressive in the preseason opener and could lead to stalled drives for the Patriots.

Given the unknowns of the preseason and the value that can be found with the home side, go with a PARTIAL UNIT PLAY ON TENNESSEE (+115).

Against the spread

There’s no need to get cute here with such a tight spread. The better value is with the underdog on the moneyline, and anything short of 3 and a hook worth of insurance isn’t worth any action. Focus on the moneyline and/or total instead.

PASS.

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Over/Under

I anticipate a slow game considering Tennessee’s penchant for running the ball and the likelihood of both sides struggling to be efficient in the passing game. A few turnovers should be in store on Friday, and that should be enough to keep this one UNDER 38.5 (-110).

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