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The Boston Red Sox (66-59) and Houston Astros (71-55) clash in a Tuesday showdown at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Houston leads 1-0
Boston and Houston will be busy dance partners for the rest of the month. Monday’s series opener — with the Astros winning 9-4 — marked the front end of a 4-game set at Minute Maid. The AL foes will meet again for a 3-game set at Fenway Park in Boston from Aug. 28-30.
Houston snapped a 3-game skid with Monday’s win. The Astros hit 3 home runs in a game for the 4th time since last Tuesday.
Red Sox at Astros projected starters
RHP Tanner Houck vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Houck (3-6, 5.05 ERA) is making his 14th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 67 2/3 IP.
- Returning from the IL to start for the first time since mid-June after being struck in the face by a come-backer and having surgery
- 2023 road stats: 1-4, 4.26 ERA in 31 2/3 IP across 6 starts
- Has never faced Houston as a starter
- Registered 3.52 and 3.15 ERAs in 2021 and 2022, respectively
Verlander (8-6, 3.36 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has registered a 1.19 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 112 1/3 IP for the Astros and New York Mets.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 9 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 12-5 road win vs. Miami Marlins Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 5-3, 2.49 ERA in 61 1/3 IP across 10 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 2.32 ERA in 31 IP (2016-19)
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Red Sox at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Red Sox at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Astros 4
Moneyline
Houck flips the Astros to the lesser side of their platoon splits (.722 OPS, .159 ISO). He has been solid over three rehab starts for AAA-Worcester. Houck registered analytics-supportable 3.52 and 3.15 ERAs in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Verlander has some indicators that put his expected ERA as high as 4.60 or 4.65.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a solid price here: BACK THE RED SOX (+120).
Run line/Against the spread
Houck returning from the IL brings a bit of risk for the Boston side. Some bettors may prefer a RED SOX +1.5 (-165) play on the run line.
Over/Under
No indicators swaying expected production either way: PASS.
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