[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Cincinnati Reds (64-59) welcome the Toronto Blue Jays (67-56) to Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 1-0.
The Reds beat the Blue Jays 1-0 to open the 3-game series up Friday. Cincinnati has won 5 of its last 9 but lost 6 in a row before those 9. The Reds sit 2nd in the NL Central. Cincinnati is 31-32 at home this season.
The Blue Jays are 35-29 on the road and have a .545 win percentage but still sit 3rd in the AL East, 8 games behind the Baltimore Orioles. Toronto has won just 4 of its last 10 games.
Blue Jays at Reds projected starters
RHP Chris Bassitt vs. LHP Brandon Williamson
Bassitt (11-6, 3.95 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 145 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K in a 6-5 home loss against the Chicago Cubs Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 5-4, 5.19 ERA in 69 1/3 IP through 13 starts
Williamson (4-2, 4.33 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 81 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K in a 4-2 road loss over the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday
- 2023 home stats: 2-1, 3.97 ERA in 45 1/3 IP through 8 starts
Blue Jays at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+105) | Reds +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Blue Jays at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Blue Jays 4
Moneyline
BET REDS (+120).
Cincinnati has been one of the streakiest teams in the MLB, and it is 37-26 following a victory. The Reds are also 19-21 straight up as a home underdog, which is the top half of the league in win percentage.
Cincinnati is also a league-best 19-11 in non-league games, which this is. The Blue Jays are 47-39 as a favorite as well which ranks in the bottom half of the league in terms of win percentage.
The Reds need to win to keep a playoff berth possible and should win at home, especially given Bassitt’s struggles on the road. Take REDS (+120).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The value is on Cincinnati on the moneyline, and the Reds at +1.5 (-135) is a little too much juice compared to them to winning outright.
Similarly, the Blue Jays are just 33-53 on the run line as a favorite and aren’t worth a play at their current value. Ultimately pass on this total and play the Reds to win outright.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 10 (-115).
The Reds have gone Under in Williamson’s last 2 starts, and they have gone Under in 3 straight games. Cincinnati has also gone Under in 11 of its last 13 games.
Toronto has gone Under in 2 of its last 3 and is 49-68-6 O/U on the season. It has gone Under in 3 of the last 9 starts for Bassitt as well. Considering the trends for both teams take UNDER 10 (-115).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]