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The Milwaukee Brewers (65-56) and Los Angeles Dodgers (73-46) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch at Dodger Stadium is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Dodgers lead 4-1
Milwaukee had a 4-game win streak snapped in a 6-2 loss Tuesday and then lost Wednesday’s game 7-1. After downing Los Angeles 9-3 on May 8, the Brewers have lost 4 straight to the Dodgers and have been outscored 27-5 along the way.
The Dodgers have been almost perfect this month. Wednesday triumph was the club’s 10th in a row. The Dodgers are 14-1 with a plus-58 run differential since Aug. 1.
Brewers at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Lance Lynn
Burnes (9-6, 3.60 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 145 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 5 K in a 7-6 win at Chicago White Sox Friday
- 2023 road stats: 5-3, 3.35 ERA in 80 2/3 IP in 13 starts
- Career vs. Dodgers: 1-2, 8.62 ERA in 18 2/3 IP in 4 starts (2019-22) and has allowed a 1.205 OPS in Chavez Ravine
- Has benefited from a .238 batting average on balls in play
- Has walked 10 batters over his last 17 2/3 IP
Lynn (9-9, 5.88 ERA) is making his 25th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.85 K/9 in 137.2 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-1 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
- 2023 home stats: 4-4, 5.92 ERA in 62 1/3 IP in 11 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Brewers: 5-0, 0.59 ERA in 30 2/3 IP (2015-21)
- Has battled the tough combination of a low ground-ball rate (37.4%) and a high home runs/fly balls rate (20.5%) but over his last 5 starts at Dodger Stadium has held foes to 1 HR or less 4 times
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Brewers at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Brewers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Dodgers -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-160) | Dodgers -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Brewers at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 6, Brewers 4
Moneyline
Milwaukee figures to be overrated by their record, and Los Angeles has been the lean in this set. Thursday’s game tilts the pitching toward the Brewers, but L.A. is still the play.
The Brewers have averaged 4.26 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.30 RPG. They have been fortunate to go 24-10 in 1-run games.
The Los Angeles offense has registered a high-contact .866 OPS this month (.911 OPS at home).
BACK THE DODGERS (-150).
Run line/Against the spread
The Dodgers are 33-14 in games decided by 5-plus runs. They do not get embroiled in a lot of close games and that’s especially true of late. But we should look for a bit more return before this run line play supersedes the moneyline wager above.
If Dodgers -1.5 gets to +140 or above, that’s the play. If not, PASS.
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Over/Under
Dodger bats on a roll, Burnes a bit too far over his skis, and Hill having some downside make the OVER 8.5 (-105) worth a partial-unit play.
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