Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

The Houston Texans and New England Patriots meet Thursday to open Week 1 of the NFL preseason. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 7 p.m. ET (NFL Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Texans vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Texans finished the 2022 season with a 3-13-1 record. With the 2nd overall pick in the NFL Draft, they selected QB C.J. Stroud out of Ohio State in a move that guarantees they won’t need to stand by 2022 signal-caller QB Davis Mills for long. Houston also made a splash by giving up a truckload of future draft capital for the 3rd overall selection to select LB Will Anderson Jr., out of Alabama.

Other new faces include TE Dalton Schultz (who joined as a free agent from the Dallas Cowboys), OL Shaq Mason (who joined via trade from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and perhaps most importantly, DeMeco Ryans, who joins from the San Francisco 49ers to be the team’s new head coach.

The Patriots wrapped up 2022 with an 8-9 record, winning just 2 of their final 7 games and falling short of the postseason. New England made numerous offseason moves to bolster its offense after finishing the season with one of the least-efficient units in the league, signing TE Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Kansas City Chiefs), and hiring former Houston head coach Bill O’Brien to serve as offensive coordinator.

This will mark just the 2nd time these teams have met in the preseason.

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Texans at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Houston -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Patriots +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread (ATS): Houston -3.5 (-110) | Patriots +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 36.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Texans at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Texans 21, Patriots 17

Moneyline

While wagering on the preseason can be fun, and we’re all excited football is back, it’s important to not get carried away with large bets because preseason football can be a menace to handicap. Coaches are often tight-lipped about their plans for who will play and how much, often giving lesser-known players additional playing time to showcase their skills while simultaneously keeping starters and key players safe from injury.

Ryans has already stated that Stroud will get the start, and he’s likely to see a few series at least, as the Texans try to sort out which direction they take to start the year. Mills is also likely to see meaningful playing time.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has said his most inexperienced players will see the bulk of work Thursday, but it is hard to know how much faith to put in the notoriously tight-lipped coach. QB Mac Jones may not see the field at all as New England could trot out the trio of Bailey Zappe, Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham under center.

I’m going to give a slight edge to HOUSTON (-165) as it is expected to stick with its starters deeper into the game and come away with the victory. Go with just a partial unit here — it is the preseason, after all — and shy away altogether if the line rises north of -180.

Against the spread

With too many variables concerning which units will be on the field and for how long, as well as questions about how efficient those units will be, it’s best just to shy away from either team doing enough to cover a 3.5-point spread.

PASS.

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Over/Under

There is enough experience on both sides of this game to give hope for it sneaking OVER 36.5 (-110). Stroud’s efficiency has yet to be seen, but when he gives way to Mills and QB Case Keenum, both have plenty of regular-season experience.

Whether Jones sees the field or not for the Patriots, Zappe and McSorley also have regular-season experience, and Zappe in particular has shown that he can get the job done. Cunningham was an electric college quarterback and should get plenty of opportunities to move the ball late in the game.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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