The Houston Astros (66-49) and Baltimore Orioles (70-44) meet Thursday to finalize a 3-game series in Charm City. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 2-0
The Astros have scored a combined 15 runs in taking the first 2 games of this series. Houston is 4-1 over its last 5 games and has scored 7-plus runs in each of those 4 wins.
The Orioles entered this series having won 4 consecutive games and 7 of their last 8. However, shaky pitching and an offense going 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position have dinged Baltimore in this set.
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Astros at Orioles projected starters
RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Dean Kremer
Brown (8-7, 4.07 ERA) makes his 22nd start of the season. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 117 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-3 road win vs. New York Yankees Friday
- 2023 road stats: 5-3, 3.65 ERA in 69 IP through 12 starts
- Has never started against Baltimore
- Has been undone by a .327 batting average on balls in play and a 19.8% home run/fly ball rate
Kremer (10-4, 4.61 ERA) makes his 24th start. He owns a 1.33 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 125 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 4 K in 10-3 home win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- 2023 home stats: 5-2, 3.70 ERA in 56 IP across 10 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 2-0, 0.54 ERA in 16 2/3 IP across 2 starts
Astros at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Orioles -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+140) | Orioles +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Astros at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 7, Orioles 4
Moneyline
This pitching match-up swings things toward Houston. Look for the best value on the Run Line: PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
There is a big chance of rain in this one but also of an outward-blowing breeze. Kremer is much more of a fly-ball pitcher, while Brown gets a ton of ground balls. Kremer has also walked 4 batters in 2 of his last 4 starts and an extra walk and homer could be a toxic combination against an Astros lineup that owns an .802 OPS over its last 11 games.
Houston has been quite good on the road (35-24), and the Astros have won 5 get-away games in a row.
Roll with the inertia of this series, and BACK THE ASTROS -1.5 (+140).
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Over/Under
For the 2nd game in a row, the Over is a lean here, but wait out a better tag. Figure a decent amount of value on an Over 9.5 at +100.
PASS.
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