The Toronto Blue Jays (63-50) and the Cleveland Guardians (54-58) open a 4-game series at Progressive Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Guardians won season series 5-2 in 2022
The Blue Jays picked up a 3-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox over the weekend, winning the finale 13-1 on Sunday and outscoring the Red Sox 25-8 at Fenway Park. Toronto entered the series 0-7 this season against Boston. Toronto is 9-4 across the past 13 games overall and is 6-1 in its last 7 road outings.
The Guardians lost 5-3 Sunday and 7-4 Saturday to the Chicago White Sox as it failed to deliver a knockout punch after a 4-2 series-opening victory on Friday.
However, there were some punches thrown Saturday. Cleveland star 3B Jose Ramirez got into a fight with White Sox SS Tim Anderson, and both are likely facing a lengthy suspension. MLB is still reviewing the incident, so stay tuned. Ramirez, who leads the team with 18 HR, was in the lineup as the DH Sunday.
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Blue Jays at Guardians projected starters
LHP Hyun Jin Ryu vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Ryu (0-1, 7.20 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He made his season debut Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles after recovering from elbow surgery.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 13-3 home loss vs. the Orioles Tuesday
- 2022 road splits: 1-0, 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER – 1 HR), .270 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
Williams (1-3, 3.38 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 42 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 2-0 road loss vs. the Houston Astros Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 4.21 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 12 ER – 4 HR), .273 OBA in 5 starts
Blue Jays at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+125) | Guardians +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Blue Jays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 5, Guardians 4
Moneyline
The BLUE JAYS (-130) are worth a look, as Toronto heads to The Land with a head of steam after sweeping the BoSox in Beantown.
The Guardians surprisingly were sellers at the MLB trade deadline, and they lost 2 of 3 games to the lowly White Sox over the weekend. Cleveland has a penchant for making trash look like treasure and is likely to make Ryu resemble his 2019 All-Star form rather than the rusty southpaw we saw last time out against Baltimore.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-155) are worth playing lightly, as they’re not priced out of line.
Williams has been a steadying force in a young and relatively inexperienced pitching rotation. He’ll keep the Guardians in it.
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Over/Under
AVOID, as I expect the run total to come down right on the number.
While Cleveland has cashed the Under in 4 of the past 5 games and has cashed low at a 6-2-1 clip across the past 9 games, it could pile up some decent offense against the shaky Ryu.
Meanwhile, we saw the Over cash Sunday in Toronto’s 13-1 rout in Boston, snapping a 9-0 run to the Under. Going low on the total might be tempting, but the pitching matchup makes that a rather risky proposition.
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