The Baltimore Orioles (66-42) and Toronto Blue Jays (60-49) wrap up a 4-game set Thursday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 7-2
The Orioles lost 4-1 as +118 underdogs in the 3rd game of the series Wednesday. The loss ended Baltimore’s 3-game win streak, but it still has a 1½-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
RHP Jack Flaherty will make his Orioles debut Thursday after being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday.
The Blue Jays ended their 3-game losing streak Wednesday, scoring 3 runs in the 6th inning. Toronto is 3rd in the AL East, 6½ games behind the Orioles.
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Orioles at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Kevin Gausman
Flaherty (7-6, 4.43 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 109 2/3 innings for the Cardinals.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 11-7 win at Arizona Diamondbacks July 26
- 2023 road stats: 3-3, 3.69 ERA (68 1/3 IP, 28 ER) in 12 starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 5 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 7 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 4-1 home win April 1
Gausman (8-5, 3.10 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 127 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 4-1 home win vs. Los Angeles Angels Friday
- 2023 home stats: 3-1, 2.48 ERA (65 1/3 IP, 18 ER) in 10 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 1-1, 4.76 ERA (17 IP, 9 ER) in 3 starts
- 2023 vs. Orioles: 0-0, 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, an 8-3 home loss in 11 innings May 21
Orioles at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:19 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Blue Jays -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-150) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Orioles at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 3, Orioles 2
Moneyline
The Blue Jays (-165) should split the series with Gausman on the mound at Rogers Centre Thursday. The former Orioles righty has allowed fewer than 4 earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts. However, I think the Blue Jays are being slightly overvalued at this number.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The Orioles are 29-10 on the run line this season as road underdogs. While Flaherty has been inconsistent this year, he did look good vs. the Blue Jays April 1.
LEAN ORIOLES +1.5 (-150).
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Over/Under
The Under is 27-16-3 this season when the Blue Jays are home favorites and 33-21-5 when they’re coming off a win. Gausman is having one of the best seasons of his career and should help keep this game low-scoring vs. his former team.
BET UNDER 8 (-115).
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