The Cincinnati Reds (59-51) wrap up a 4-game series against the Chicago Cubs (55-53) on Thursday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 5-3
The Reds lost 16-6 to the Cubs Wednesday despite 1B Joey Votto hitting 2 home runs. Cincinnati has been outscored 41-21 in the first 3 games of the series and 36-15 over its last 2 games but remains half a game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for 1st place in the NL Central.
The Cubs got home runs from DH Christopher Morel, SS Dansby Swanson, and OF Ian Happ (2), while 3B Jeimer Candelario went a perfect 4-for-4 in Wednesday’s victory. Chicago has won 10 of its last 12 games and is only 3 games back of Cincinnati in the crowded division.
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Reds at Cubs projected starters
RHP Luke Weaver vs. RHP Jameson Taillon
Weaver (2-3, 6.80 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 86 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 3-2 road defeat vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 1-3, 5.76 ERA (50 IP, 32 ER) over 10 starts
- Career vs. Cubs: 1-3, 8.59 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 28 ER) across 7 starts
Taillon (5-6, 5.46 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 89 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 5-1 road win vs. St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 2-4, 6.43 ERA (49 IP, 35 ER) in 10 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 4-5, 4.64 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 40 ER) over 14 starts
Reds at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Cubs -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Reds at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 7, Reds 5
Moneyline
After outscoring the Reds 36-15 in the last 2 games, I’ll take the CUBS (-160) at home in Thursday’s series finale. I wouldn’t wager on Chicago to win at anything steeper than -160, though.
Run line/Against the spread
CUBS -1.5 (+115) is how I’d bet on the run line with how their bats have performed in this series. Taillon has also pitched better since the All-Star break than Weaver, allowing 5 total earned runs over his last 3 starts.
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Over/Under
Even with Taillon’s recent stretch of success, OVER 10 (-115) is the play in this contest. There have been at least 11 runs scored in each game and 62 total runs scored in the first 3 games of this series.
The Over is also 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these division rivals.
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