With the Pac-12 seemingly on the brink of a catastrophic implosion, the Big Ten could once again be ready to pounce on the right opportunity. Already with USC and UCLA ready to join the Big Ten in 2024, the Big Ten has reportedly started the exploration of potential expansion moves involving up to four additional Pac-12 schools.
According to Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports, a group of Big Ten presidents have started the exploratory discussions on expansion with a focus on the possibility of adding Oregon and Washington as a primary move, and Cal and Stanford as a secondary move on top of that. Wetzel does note these discussions are in the early stages and no moves are considered imminent, although things can move rather quickly when it comes to realignment changes, and a lot can happen behind closed doors when nobody is looking.
The Big Ten may be wise to hold off for the moment until seeing where the dust is about to settle with the current Pac-12 membership. Colorado recently announced it will be heading back to the Big 12 in 2024, the same year USC and UCLA join the Big Ten. That will leave the Pac-12 with just nine members. The focus now appears to be on Arizona and Arizona State’s future with Big 12 rumors as hot as they have been. A loss of Arizona or both Arizona schools would be a potential death blow to the Pac-12 once and for all, leaving schools like Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford up for grabs.
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The Pac-12 is also still attempting to secure a media rights package that will keep its remaining members, and potential future members, satisfied with the conference’s long-term vision and security. But it may be difficult selling everyone on the benefits of a package relying so heavily on Apple TV+ streaming subscriptions resulting in $20 million per school at a time when the Big Ten and SEC schools are each pulling in $50 million per year on their respective media rights packages.
If you are Oregon or Washignton and you have to decide between a questionable $20 million media rights deal or a rock solid package like the Big Ten’s, it should be an easy decision.
The move to add USC and UCLA always felt a bit incomplete from the Big Ten’s perspective, so word of potential expansion with more Pac-12 members has never had reason to go away. Adding to the California footprint with Cal and Stanford would certainly be great fits for academics, but there would potentially be more to gain with the additions of Oregon and Washington, which is why those two schools appear to be the higher priority for any possible Big Ten expansion to come.
There are some concerns about the future of a Big Ten with up to 20 teams, of course, and those will certainly be part of the discussions. But there are also ways to go about expansion that makes sense for everybody, especially if the paydays continue to be as rich as they have been.
As is always the case with conference realignment headlines, stay tuned. Things could happen quickly or drag on into the fall and winter months.
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