The Tampa Bay Rays (63-44) and Houston Astros (59-46) meet Sunday to close out a 3-game series between AL contenders. Game time at Minute Maid Park is slated for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Houston leads 3-2
Tampa Bay was run out of the yard in a 17-4 rout Saturday at Minute Maid. Five Rays pitchers combined to cough up 18 hits — including 5 home runs — in the defeat. The Rays have thus far split this series but are just 5-9 in the second half.
The Astros have now had 16-or-more hits 5 times since June 5. They own a second-half OPS of .821 and have jumped to 1 game behind the AL West-leading Texas Rangers.
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Rays at Astros projected starters
RHP Zack Littell vs. RHP Brandon Bielak
Littell (0-2, 5.11 ERA) is making his 4th start and 17th appearance. The swingman owns a 1.46 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 24 2/3 IP for the Rays and Boston Red Sox.
- Last start was July 9; has pitched once in relief since, tossing 2 scoreless innings vs. Baltimore Orioles last Sunday
- Has appeared in 55 games the last 2 seasons but just 3 as a starter
- Expected to pitch perhaps a couple of innings before handing the ball over to a long reliever. That hurler is expected to be RHP Shawn Armstrong, a 32-year-old who has logged an 0.72 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 25 IP across 3 starts and 14 relief appearances.
Bielak (5-5, 3.62 ERA) is tabbed for his 13th start and 14th appearance. He owns a 1.45 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 69 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 6 R (3 ER), 4 BB, 5 K in a 10-9 win over the Texas Rangers Monday
- 2023 Home splits: 3-2, 3.25 ERA, 1.36 WHIP over 36 IP across 6 starts and 1 relief appearance
- First career appearance vs. Tampa Bay
Rays at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Rays at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Astros 4
Moneyline
Houston is just 28-22 at home. Bielak has allowed quite a lot of hard contact (10.8% barrel rate), and his ERA is tamped down by a favorable 80.5% left-on-base rate.
Tampa has lost by 7-plus runs 3 times this season, but it has earned next-time-out bounce-back wins each time.
The Rays are adept and working through a game with bullpen pieces. TAKE TAMPA BAY. FanDuel Sportsbook lists a RAYS (-108) line, and that’s a better value.
Run line/Against the spread
The equation here pulls in a lot of juice. The value in a Sunday play on the Rays is on the Moneyline.
AVOID.
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Over/Under
There are mixed signals with these clubs, mostly calling for some regression in offense and pitching and defense. There’s no profit in forcing plays. PASS.
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