The Cleveland Guardians (52-53) and Chicago White Sox (43-63) clash Sunday in the finale of a 4-game AL Central series. First pitch at Guaranteed Rate Field is slated for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. White Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Chicago leads 6-3
Cleveland has been a streaky club since the All-Star break. The Guardians took Thursday’s series opener to claim their 3rd straight triumph but have been outscored 10-2 in a pair of losses on Friday and Saturday.
The White Sox snapped a 6-game skid with a 3-0 win Friday. Chicago leveraged 7 walks and a pair of home runs in an easy 7-2 win Saturday.
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Guardians at White Sox projected starters
RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Michael Kopech
Civale (4-2, 2.54 ERA) is lined up for his 13th start. He’s posted a 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 71 IP.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-1 win vs. Kansas City Royals Tuesday
- 2023 Road splits: 1-1, 1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP over 32 IP across 6 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. White Sox: 2-1, 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 IP (2020-22)
Kopech (4-9, 4.44 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 97 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 9 H, 5 R (4 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 loss to Chicago Cubs Tuesday
- 2023 Home splits: 1-5, 4.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 53 2/3 IP across 10 starts
- 3 career starts vs. Guardians: 1-0, 0.00 ERA in 15 IP (2021-23)
- At Cleveland on May 24: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K
Guardians at White Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | White Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+115) | White Sox +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at White Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
White Sox 6, Guardians 5
Moneyline
The White Sox have had some troubles in the second half, but offensively they have been hemmed in by some shaky nights with runners in scoring position. That’s not a particularly “sticky” stat that carries over with decent predictability. At home, the Pale Hose are 4-2 over their last 6 games against Cleveland.
Civale is too far out over his skis with his surface ERA. A .246 batting average on balls in play would be a boon, as would be a left-on-base rate of 81.4% and a home runs/fly balls rate of 6%. Civale sports all three. The 28-year-old logged season ERAs north of 4.70 in 2020 and 2022. If he registered a 4.50 ERA the rest of the way, it would not be a surprise.
BACK THE WHITE SOX. They’re listed at a solid +120 on BetMGM but an even better +126 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Run line/Against the spread
Chicago’s 6 wins against Cleveland this season have all been by the multi-run variety, but both clubs have played a lot of 1-run games on the year. More conservative bettors may want to consider a CHICAGO +1.5 (-128) play at FanDuel.
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Over/Under
There is an Over lean to Cleveland all around: regression toward a bigger team ERA but with more runs scored. The pitching in this one tacks on to that lean. Consider a line watch: take the Over 9 if it is priced at -105 or better. Otherwise, PASS.
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