The New York Yankees (54-48) face the Baltimore Orioles (62-40) Friday to open their 3-game series. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 5-5
This is the last full series before the trade deadline, although the result of these games won’t change the outlook for these teams. The Orioles have impressed everyone this year while the Yankees have disappointed.
Both teams were off on Thursday. Baltimore lost to the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday 6-4 and have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games. They have gone 14-8 in July and lead the AL East by 1 1/2 games.
The Yankees split their series with their hometown rival New York Mets by taking Wednesday’s game 3-1. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and are 9-12 in July. The Yankees are last in the division, 8 games behind the Orioles.
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Yankees at Orioles projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Cole (9-2, 2.78 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10 K/9 in 129 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 5-2 home win vs. Kansas City Royals on Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 3-1, 2.59 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 14 ER) in 8 games
- Career vs. Orioles: 5-3, 2.80 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 22 ER) in 11 games
Rodriguez (2-2, 6.91 ERA) makes his 13th start. The 23-year-old rookie has a 1.66 WHIP, 4 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 56 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-5 road win at Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 1-2, 9.11 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 27 ER) in 6 games
- Has never faced Yankees before
Yankees at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Orioles +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Orioles +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Yankees at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Orioles 4
Moneyline
The Yankees may be sitting in last place in the AL East, but that’s not stopping Cole from having a strong season, especially on the road where he allows a .616 OPS (versus the .635 at home).
Pair that with Rodriguez’s struggles in Camden Yards and it tough to pick the Orioles. Rodriguez has allowed 17 BB at home compared to the 8 on the road. And he allows a 1.02 OPS with a .348 batting average in Baltimore.
BET YANKEES (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
The Orioles have only played 13 games as a home underdog this season so its tough to see a trend. They are 8-5 ATS in those games, but at -165 a Yankees bet is the better value option, especially looking at the pitching splits. On top of that the Yankees are 26-20 ATS on the road and are 21-13 as the underdog. I think its worth .5 units on YANKEES -1.5 (+135).
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Over/Under
Both teams trend toward the Over. After a loss, the Orioles have an Over record of 21-14-4. And the Yankees are 28-22-3 after a win.
Combine that with Baltimore going Under in 5 of their last 7 despite a 51-43-8 Over record this entire season, its time for their offense to come back.
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120).
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