Last season, ESPN was down on Michigan football all the way until it wasn’t.
Thanks to a weak nonconference schedule — though the Big Ten has nine conference games compared to the SEC’s eight — the Wolverines were the subject of much derision. Multiple pundits questioned if the maize and blue even belonged in the upper tier of the sport. Then Michigan ran Ohio State off the field in Columbus, securing a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinal.
Many believed the 45-23 drubbing eliminated OSU, but, alas, with no other teams deserving, the Buckeyes got in as well.
Now ESPN is wondering if the Big Ten could get two teams into this season’s playoff. Despite the Wolverines, Buckeyes and even Penn State appearing to be in a good spot to potentially reach the final four, ESPN ranks the Big Ten as the No. 2 conference in terms of potentially landing two in the end. Behind the SEC, of course. ($)
Top contenders: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
FPI says: 25% chance for multiple CFP teams
Agree or disagree: Agree (would increase the odds slightly)Here’s why it will: The Big Ten did it last year, and Ohio State and Michigan have similar teams returning, with the most glaring exception being a new starting quarterback at Ohio State. The chances should be bumped marginally because Penn State has the talent and opportunity to join one of them in the debate. The Nittany Lions will have home-field advantage Nov. 11 against Michigan, where a win could create a three-way tie in the Big Ten East Division if Ohio State beats Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State. Beyond winning the Big Ten, PSU’s ideal scenario would be to claim a win over the eventual Big Ten champs in a three-way tie, or the committee’s highest-ranked Big Ten team. The Buckeyes have a similar schedule to last year, and a Sept. 23 trip to Notre Dame could help impress the selection committee if Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten again. (That’s assuming that the Irish finish the season as a CFP top 25 team again). With road trips to Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan, and an Oct. 21 home game against Penn State, strength of schedule won’t be an issue for Ohio State if it loses a game — especially if it wins the Big Ten. If the Big Ten is going to get two teams in again, its best path is for Penn State or Michigan to win the Big Ten, Ohio State to finish with one loss to either of them, and for the Buckeyes to beat a top-25 Notre Dame team on the road.
Here’s why it won’t: The committee magnifies nonconference schedules if teams don’t win their league titles, and that could be problematic for Michigan and Penn State. Michigan fans don’t want to hear it (again), but if the Wolverines don’t win the Big Ten East, it’s possible they would have only one win against a ranked opponent. Michigan plays East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green in its nonconference schedule, teams that combined for a 19-19 record last year and finished the season unranked. Penn State faces West Virginia, Delaware and UMass in its nonconference games — teams unlikely to be ranked at the end of the season.
The ‘why it won’t’ section ignores that some teams that Michigan faces may be much better than advertised. Yes, the nonconference isn’t anything to write home about, but Georgia, by comparison, doesn’t have a schedule that’s any better. And Michigan plays one more Big Ten game than the Bulldogs, or Alabama, or any SEC school plays.
Assume Michigan beats Ohio State, but has one loss to Penn State and the Nittany Lions lose to the Buckeyes, but end up winning a three-way tie in the conference and win the Big Ten. Let’s also stipulate that Maryland loses only to the aforementioned three and that one of Michigan’s three West opponents (Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue) is good. Is there really no chance to endure, just because of the nonconference schedule?
Georgia’s nonconference features powerhouses such as Tennessee-Martin, Ball State, UAB and Georgia Tech. Alabama at least faces Texas, but also plays Middle Tennessee, South Florida and Chattanooga. Granted, ESPN did account for the Bulldogs’ weak schedule and as back-to-back champions, they’ve earned some benefit of the doubt. But let’s not act like the whole of the SEC is much better than the whole of the Big Ten. Because, at present, it possibly is not, and the conference in the south doesn’t even play as many in-conference games, which means something for the northern conference.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal title=”An offer for Wolverines fans” description=”For the best local Detroit news, sports, entertainment and culture coverage, subscribe to the Detroit Free Press.” url=”https://cm.freep.com/channeloffer?gps-source=CPSMGMIDARTICLE&utm_source=smg&utm_medium=inline&utm_content=wolverineswire&utm_campaign=smgtolocal&offer=W-SF&barBuild=atoms-pid” button_text=”$1 for 3 months”]