The Milwaukee Brewers (49-42) and Cincinnati Reds (50-41) begin a 3-game series at Great American Ball Park Friday. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 5-2
The Brewers begin the second half of their season with a 6-game road trip. Milwaukee is in 2nd place in the NL Central, just 1 game back of Cincinnati. The Brew Crew performed well against division rivals, going 17-9 against NL Central foes prior to the All-Star break.
Cincinnati finished the first half of the season losing 2 games of a 3-game set in Milwaukee. The Reds are just 23-21 at Great American this season, including 3 losses in a 4-game series when they hosted the Brewers in early June.
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Brewers at Reds projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Burnes (7-5, 3.94 ERA) will make his 19th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 107 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K in a 7-3 home victory vs. the Reds last Friday
- 2023 Road Splits: 3-3, 3.76 ERA (55 IP, 23 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, .198 opponent batting average (OBA) across 9 starts
Ashcraft (4-6, 6.28 ERA) will make his 17th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 81 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K in a 9-2 road win vs. the Washington Nationals on July 5
- Last start vs. Brewers: Loss, 4 IP, 10 ER, 9 H, 4 BB, 2 K in a 10-8 win on June 3
- 2023 Home Splits: 2-5, 7.95 ERA (43 IP, 38 ER), 1.65 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, .297 OBA in 9 starts
Brewers at Reds odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -124 (bet $124 to win $100) | Reds +106 (bet $100 to win $106)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+126) | Reds +1.5 (-152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Brewers at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 7, Reds 3
Moneyline
BET THE BREWERS (-124).
I have zero faith in Ashcraft being able to hold down the Brewers’ offense, in part because he allowed 10 earned runs against them in early June. Milwaukee has also won 5 of their 7 head-to-head matchups this season while outscoring Cincinnati 33-26.
Run line/Against the spread
BET BREWERS -1.5 (+126).
I’m all in on the Brewers to win this game and they’ve covered the run line in 3 of their 5 wins against the Reds this season.
I also really like that Milwaukee has the 2021 NL Cy Young-winning Burnes on the hill. He is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 6 starts and 10 relief appearances in his career vs. the Reds.
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Over/Under
AVOID.
This a big number but not out of the realm of possibilities Friday, and I just don’t have a good feeling either way. If I had a lean, it would be the Under because of Burnes being on the mound, but I’d rather focus on the Milwaukee moneyline and run line wagers.
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