The Seattle Mariners (44-43) and Houston Astros (49-40) meet Saturday for Game 3 of a 4-game series. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 4-1
Seattle won 10-1 as -104 road favorites to take a 2-0 series lead Friday. Houston scored the 1st run in Friday’s game during the 3rd inning thanks to a 3B Alex Bregman RBI single. That 1-0 lead didn’t last for long, as the Mariners struck back with a 9-run 4th inning to take a commanding 9-1 lead that proved to be too much for the Astros to overcome.
The Mariners have now won back-to-back games and are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. The Astros have dropped back-to-back games but still sit at 8-4 in their last 12 overall. Houston is 24-21 at home on the season while Seattle is 20-23 on the road.
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Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP Bryan Woo vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Woo (1-1, 4.08 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 28 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 6-5 road win Monday vs. San Francisco Giants
- 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 4 road starts vs. 0-0, 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 2 home starts
- First career start vs. Houston
Valdez (7-6, 2.49 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 105 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 4-2 road loss June 27 vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Career vs. Seattle: 5-0, 1.94 ERA (51 IP, 11 ER), 33 H, 20 BB, 53 K through 9 appearances (7 starts)
Mariners at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-185) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Astros 4
Moneyline
LEAN MARINERS (+115).
This is a risky bet, so bet lightly, and if you are confident in the Astros at (-140) you could place a small wager on them as well.
Both of these teams are very evenly matched, in fact they are both 5-5 in the last 10 Seattle-Houston meetings. Seattle is 6-4 in their last 10 while the Astros are 7-3 in their last 10. The Mariners are 4-1 in Woo’s last 5 starts and Houston is 3-2 in Valdez’s last 5 starts. I think the Mariners are slightly hotter in recent matchups just because they have won back-to-back games and their last 4 vs. Houston, giving them the slight edge.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I believe in the Mariners at +1.5 (-185) to cover here, but the line is simply not worth the juice. Bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-105).
For Seattle, the Over is 6-4 in their last 10 overall and 3-0 in each of Woo’s last 3 starts. For Houston the Over is 5-4-1 and 2-1 in Valdez’s last 3 starts vs. Seattle. The Over is also 3-2 in the last 5 meetings overall.
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