The Chicago Cubs (40-45) and the Milwaukee Brewers (46-41) conclude a 4-game series Thursday at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Series tied 3-3 after Chicago’s 4-3 win Wednesday night
The Cubs were tripped up 8-6 in the series opener Monday night, but Chicago has turned the tables with a pair of consecutive 1-run victories (7-6 in 11 innings Tuesday, 4-3 Wednesday). The Under (8) cashed on Wednesday, snapping a 3-game run to the Over in this series.
The two losses have slipped the Brewers 2 games behind the Cincinnati Reds for 1st place in the NL Central. The Under result for the Brewers on Wednesday snapped a 5-0 run to the Over.
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Cubs at Brewers projected starters
RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Stroman (9-6, 2.76 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 107 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 6-0 home loss vs. the Cleveland Guardians Saturday
- 2023 road splits: 4-2, 2.70 ERA (50 IP, 15 ER – 1 HR) with a .242 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts
Peralta (5-7, 4.67 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 86 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in an 8-7 road loss vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2023 home splits: 4-3, 3.75 ERA (48 IP, 20 ER – 7 HR) with a .209 OBA in 9 starts
Cubs at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Brewers -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 4, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The CUBS (-110) are a solid play as a pick ’em in this series finale.
American Family Field has been a house of horrors for the Cubbies in recent seasons, but they have made themselves right at home in this series. Chicago is looking to win their first series in Milwaukee since July 4-6 last season.
While the Brewers are 6-1 in the past 7 games following a loss, Peralta has been too shaky to be trusted and they are still just 2-6 in the past 8 at home against teams with a losing record.
Run line/Against the spread
The Brewers +1.5 (-190) are a little too expensive for my liking on the run line if you want a little insurance after the past 2 losses.
If you like the Brew Crew, just play them straight up, but I prefer the Cubs -1.5 (+155) to get it down again. However, it should be another close game, so AVOID.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-105) is the lean Thursday.
The Under has cashed at a 13-5-1 clip in the past 19 road games for the Cubs while going 10-2 in the past 12 on the road vs. RHP.
The Under is 5-1-1 in the Brewers’ last 7 tries in Game 4 of a series and is 22-7-2 in the past 31 home games against a team with a losing record.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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