Mountain West Football: First Look At The Vanderbilt Commodores

Vandy might finally be on the rise in the SEC, which makes their two games against Mountain West opponents critical litmus tests.

Mountain West Football: First Look at the Vanderbilt Commodores

The ‘Dores might finally be on the rise in the SEC, which makes their two games against Mountain West opponents critical litmus tests.

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A test for two Mountain West teams who hope to rise.

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For the majority of their existence, the Vanderbilt Commodores have been a moribund program with little success of which to speak, but change might finally be in the air.

For the first time since James Franklin left Nashville in 2013, there are hopes that the downtrodden ‘Dores have found a lasting path out of the bottom of the SEC East division. While the grind of conference play figures to be as brutal as ever, they’ll get a chance to prove themselves against a pair of Mountain West opponents, Hawaii and UNLV, who harbor higher hopes of their own headed into 2023.

Location: Nashville, Tennessee

Conference: SEC

Series History: Vanderbilt leads the all-time series against Hawaii, 1-0, while UNLV leads their all-time series against the Commodores, 1-0.

2022 Record: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)

Head Coach: Clark Lea (third year, 7-17 overall). Life will never been a cakewalk for anyone holding the SEC’s toughest job, but Lea has made some headway in his first two seasons at the helm. Despite taking their expected lumps against the likes of Alabama and Georgia early in SEC play, the Commodores notched two straight conference wins against Kentucky and Florida in November, ending a drought that stretched back to 2019.

Now, Lea’s ‘Dores have more experience on hand than ever, returning 70% of last year’s production. After finishing last season just one win shy of bowl eligibility, they’ll be motivated to anchor down in non-conference play once more in order to meet that goal.

Key Players

Will Sheppard, WR

Slowly but surely, Sheppard is leaving his mark as one of the best overall pass catchers in Vanderbilt history. Last year, he led the entire SEC with 116 targets and paced the Commodores with 60 catches, 776 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns (including two in the Week 0 blowout against Hawaii) while dropping just three passes. That was enough to earn him a second-team all-SEC nod.

AJ Swann, QB

Though it took a little while for Swann to see the field last year, he appears to be the quarterback of the present and the future until further notice. He appeared in nine games as a true freshman and made six starts, completing 58.1% of his throws for 1,274 yards (6.4 yards per attempt) with ten touchdowns and a healthy 1% interception rate. For better or worse, the sophomore is now an offensive cornerstone.

Jaylen Mahoney, S

Now one of the most experienced players on the Vanderbilt roster, Mahoney continued doing a little bit of everything for the Commodores defense last season. He set a new career high with seven tackles for loss among 55 total and also broke up five passes with one interception.

CJ Taylor, ANCHOR

The flex piece in Lea’s defense, Taylor finished 2022 with the highest overall PFF grade, 74.6, of any Commodores defender. It makes sense when you consider he also tallied 56 total tackles, the most of anyone returning for Vanderbilt in 2023, as well as seven tackles for loss and five pass breakups.

De’Rickey Wright, S

After flirting with the transfer portal early last year, Wright returned to the Commodores and stepped up, leading the team with six pass breakups and three interceptions while making 55 total tackles. If The Tennessean’s Gentry Estes is to be believed, he could be in for a major jump in production after an equally strong spring.

Overview:

Offense

Vanderbilt’s offense wasn’t great last year, but a closer look at things reveals some progress: Though they finished 120th in net points per drive and 118th in net available yards percentage per drive, their -1.19 and -15.3% figures in those two areas were actually the team’s best since 2018. The Commodores were also pretty good at protecting the quarterback, allowing a 3.7% sack rate which ranked 18th in the country, and return enough pieces here to keep giving their SEC brethren the occasional scare.

At quarterback, it begins and ends with Swann, though former starter Ken Seals is still on hand to provide a veteran hand if needed. The situation at running back, on the other hand, is much less clear-cut since leading rusher Ray Davis bolted for Kentucky in December. Junior Patrick Smith and sophomore Chase Gillespie combined for 83 carries, but this could be an opportunity for incoming freshmen like Sedrick Alexander or Deago Benson to pitch in early.

Though top tight end Ben Bresnahan has moved on, the passing game remains well-stocked behind Sheppard. Sophomore Jayden McGowan (44 catches, 453 yards, three touchdowns) made good on the early buzz which surrounded him this time last year while Quincy Skinner Jr. (17-238-2) led the way with 14.0 yards per catch and one drop on 24 targets.

The offensive line, meanwhile, battled through injuries in 2022 but returns mostly intact. The biggest name back is senior Bradley Ashford, who has spent time at tackle and guard over the past two years, but tackles Gunnar Hansen and Junior Uzebu also provide Vandy a pair of solid bookends which will test their two Mountain West opponents.

Defense

It may seem like bad news that Vanderbilt went from allowing 6.75 yards per play in 2021 to 6.95 YPP last season, but Lea’s defense did a couple things well like getting into the backfield (20.5% stuff rate, 32nd in FBS) and taking better advantage of fumble luck, but there’s a lot of work left to be done and now the Commodores must do it without Anfernee Orji, their top defender who is now with the NFL’s New Orleans Saints.

One top priority: Find a spark for the pass rush. Though Vanderbilt nearly doubled their raw sack total from nine to 17, their 4.1% team rate still ranked 121st in the FBS. Defensive lineman Christian James led the team with three sacks, but they will simply need more across the board from newcomers like Stanford transfer Aeneas DiCosmo and returning veterans Daevion Davis and Miles Capers.

Orji’s departure leaves a massive hole at linebacker, one that Ethan Barr (42 tackles, two tackles for loss) won’t be able to fill by himself. Kane Patterson (39 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks) seems likely to take on more reps, but others like Errington Truesdell and Notre Dame transfer Prince Kollie could also step into the breach. The secondary, thankfully, has fewer concerns around Mahoney, Taylor, and Wright since cornerbacks Tyson Russell and BJ Anderson also return, but their collective challenge will be to get more hands on footballs after finishing next to last in the SEC with 36 passes defended and six interceptions.

Early Predictions

The general consensus appears to be the Lea is onto something headed into his third year with the Commodores, and they definitely looked ahead of schedule in their season-opening romp against Hawaii last season. That should be enough to help erase the “same old Vanderbilt” vibes and, for the Mountain West, could make them a much tougher challenge than anticipated. They might still have an uphill climb in the SEC, but Vandy still has SEC talent at its disposal.

Vanderbilt 42, Hawaii 20

Vanderbilt 37, UNLV 23

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