The Washington Nationals (31-48) and Seattle Mariners (38-40) wrap up a 3-game interleague series Wednesday at T-Mobile Park (ESPN+). First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Series tied 1-1 after Washington’s 7-4 win in 11 innings Tuesday night
The Nationals have won 3 of their past 4 games — their best stretch since also going 3-1 in 4 games from May 24-27. Washington has scored 4 or more runs in 3 straight games, but it has not scored 4 or more runs in 4 straight games since an 8-game run from May 19-27.
The Mariners have dropped 3 of their past 4 games and are 5-7 in their last 12 outings overall. The Over has cashed in 5 of Seattle’s last 6 games, with the M’s averaging 6.8 runs scored per game (RPG) while allowing 3.8 RPG during the stretch.
The Mariners slipped to 14-14 in interleague play with Tuesday’s loss. Seattle is still 22-18 at home while posting a plus-25 run differential overall. The Nationals are 10-15 vs. AL, and they’re 18-21 on the road with a minus-65 run differential.
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Nationals at Mariners projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Logan Gilbert
Corbin (4-9, 5.32 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 across 89 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 13-3 road loss vs. the San Diego Padres Friday
- 2023 road splits: 2-4, 6.34 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 27 ER – 11 HR) with a .296 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts
Gilbert (5-4, 4.07 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across 86 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 13-1 road win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Friday
- 2023 home splits: 1-3, 4.00 ERA (36 IP, 16 ER – 7 HR) with a .209 OBA in 6 starts
Nationals at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mariners -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+105) | Mariners -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 6, Nationals 4
Moneyline
The Mariners (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward.
While Corbin is horrific, especially on the road, AVOID Seattle, and look to the run line instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARINERS -1.5 (-130) are a much better play on the run line.
The Nationals have not only lost Corbin’s past 4 starts, but they’ve lost each of them by 2 runs or more, with 3 of the 4 setbacks by 4 or more runs.
Seattle is 11-9 in the past 20 games as a favorite, but it’s just 2-5 on the run line in the previous 7 when favored, so be careful. But, the play is more against the erratic Corbin and the Nats than it is on the M’s.
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Over/Under
The OVER 8 (-115) is the best play on the board, and it’s possible the Mariners come close to taking care of it on their own.
While the Under is 8-7-1 in Corbin’s 16 starts overall this season, it’s a lack of runs on the Nationals’ part, and not so much anything Corbin is doing. The Nats have coughed up 45 runs in the southpaw’s previous 6 assignments.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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