The New York Yankees (39-29) and the New York Mets (31-36) wrap up a 2-game Subway Series at Citi Field in Queens on Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 1-0; tied 2-2 in 2022
The Yankees jumped all over RHP Max Scherzer for 6 runs in just 3 1/3 innings in Tuesday’s 7-6 series-opening win, although every bit of that offense was needed with RHP Luis Severino coughing up 5 runs in the first 3 innings.
The Mets are in a horrible nosedive and the timing to be facing the rival Yankees is poor. They’ve dropped 2 games in a row, and 9 of the past 10 games overall to sink 5 games under .500. The 6-run explosion was a good sign that perhaps the bats are about to awaken, as the Mets had scored 4 or fewer runs in 8 of the past 13 contests.
The Yankees actually have a losing record across the past 11 games, going just 5-6. The Over result in Tuesday’s game snapped a 4-0 run to the Under.
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Yankees at Mets projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Cole (7-1, 2.84 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 85 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 3-2 home loss vs. the Boston Red Sox Friday
- 2023 Road splits: 3-0, 2.93 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 10 ER) with a .252 OBA in 5 starts
Verlander (2-3, 4.85 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 39 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K in a 13-10 road loss in 10 innings vs. the Atlanta Braves Thursday
- 2023 Home splits: 1-2, 3.79 ERA (19 IP, 8 ER – 4 HR) with a .222 OBA in 3 starts
Yankees at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Yankees at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Mets 2
Moneyline
The YANKEES (-110) are the play in this Subway Series finale at Citi Field.
It’s a nice pitching matchup, but Cole comes in with much better numbers and plays for the much hotter team.
He is also coming off his first loss of the season at home against the rival Red Sox, so he’ll likely have a chip on his shoulder.
Run line/Against the spread
The YANKEES -1.5 (+155) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line, even though they only won by a single run on Tuesday.
The Mets have been struggling to score runs, and they’ll be hard-pressed to do much damage against Cole.
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Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-115) is a strong play Wednesday after a surprise Under result Tuesday night.
The Under is still 4-1 in the past 5 games for the Yankees and is 4-1 in the previous 5 tries against a right-handed starting pitcher.
The Mets have cashed the Under in 6 of the past 8 despite Tuesday’s Over, while going 5-1 in the past 6 at home vs. a righty.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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