For a team that entered the season as the unanimous No. 1 squad and stayed that way for most of the 2023 campaign, LSU lost some momentum down the home stretch.
The Tigers dropped two of their final SEC series and exited the conference tournament one win shy of the semifinal round. As a result, coach Jay Johnson’s team earned the No. 5 national seed in the 2023 NCAA Baseball Tournament.
That may not be a bad thing, though. According to On3’s Jonathan Wagner, the Baton Rouge Regional is one of the three easiest on this weekend’s tournament slate.
It features a 19-40 Tulane team, far and away the worst record of any team in the field, as well as Sam Houston State and an Oregon State program that the Tigers are very familiar with.
Here’s Wagner’s breakdown.
LSU is the No. 5 overall seed, and the Baton Rouge Regional is an interesting one to say the least. The Tigers are one of the deepest teams in the country, led by SEC Player of the Year Dylan Crews and SEC Pitcher of the Year Paul Skenes. Those are your likely first two picks in the 2023 MLB First-Year Player Draft, as well. And given the opposition in Baton Rouge, it would be tough to envision LSU losing this regional.
Oregon State is the No. 2 seed in the Baton Rouge Regional. The Beavers were a contender to host at various points during the season, but they ultimately struggled in the end and finished No. 37 in RPI. With a staff ERA of 4.65, a team average of .290 and 79 home runs as a team, Oregon State doesn’t exactly scare a team like LSU.
Sam Houston, the No. 3 seed in Baton Rouge, has two players hitting above .400, which could be scary in the postseason. The team doesn’t hit for a lot of power, though, and a staff ERA of 5.26 is concerning given who they could have to face. Finishing No. 70 in RPI after winning 22 games in the WAC, Sam Houston is a low-end No. 3 seed.
LSU’s matchup in the opening round will be Tulane, a team that went 19-40. The Green Wave went 7-23 in non-conference games and followed it up by going just 8-16 in the American. Regardless, Tulane got hot when it mattered and won the grueling AAC Tournament.
Certainly, no game can be taken for granted come tournament time. We’ve seen top-eight national seeds upset in the regional round plenty of times before, and even Friday’s opener against the Green Wave could be tricky if they keep up their momentum from the American Athletic Conference Tournament.
Still, there are tougher regional draws in the field, including for teams with a higher national seed than the Tigers. Johnson has a good chance to reach the super regional round for the first time at LSU in his second season.
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