The Tampa Bay Rays (32-12) and New York Mets (21-23) cap off a 3-game set Thursday at Citi Field. First pitch is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
The Rays lost Wednesday’s game 8-7 in 10 innings. These clubs have thus far split a pair of high-scoring games with Tampa Bay winning 8-5 in the series opener on Monday.
New York City has agreed with Tampa. The Rays have averaged 7.33 runs per game on an .880 OPS in 6 games in NYC (4 at Yankee Stadium, 2 at Citi Field).
The Mets have not won a series since taking 2 of 3 from the Los Angeles Dodgers from April 17-19.
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Rays at Mets projected starters
LHP Taj Bradley vs. RHP Tylor Megill
Bradley (3-0, 3.52 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start of the season. He has a 0.91 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 through 15 1/3 IP.
- Has logged 23 K against just 2 BB
- The 22-year-old rookie has registered just 20 games above Double-A
Megill (4-2, 4.02 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 40 1/3 IP.
- Owns a 3.38 home ERA through 21 1/3 IP across 4 starts
- Has thrown 90-plus pitches each of his last 2 starts, something he had not previously done in his 41-game career
Rays at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Rays -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Mets -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+140) | Mets +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Rays at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Mets 4
Moneyline
Analytics underpinning runs and runs allowed indicate a Mets profile that has benefited both ways. As rough as things have been for New York’s National League entry, the ballclub could well have lost another 3 or 4 games so far.
Megill is a bit fade-worthy in his overall line. Mix in the potential pitch-count fatigue factor, and he becomes a point of leverage for Rays bettors.
The deeper Tampa Bay bullpen should be in better shape after an extra-inning affair Wednesday, so BACK TAMPA BAY (-112).
Run line/Against the spread
Avoid the added juice here. PASS.
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Over/Under
Runs-vs.-expected runs crisscross over this total a few times over. No value to be had: STEER CLEAR.
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