The Baltimore Orioles (20-10) and Kansas City Royals (8-23) put a lid on their 3-game series with a Thursday matinee at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is slated for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Baltimore is 12-3 with a 3.43 ERA since April 16, but the Orioles were blanked 6-0 in Wednesday’s game.
The Royals snapped a 10-game home losing skid with Wednesday’s triumph. Kansas City outhit Baltimore 13-6 and tied a season-high with 6 extra-base hits.
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Orioles at Royals projected starters
RHP Grayson Rodriguez vs. RHP Jordan Lyles
Rodiguez (1-0, 4.07 ERA) is making his 6th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 24 1/3 IP.
- Has a 3.60 ERA over 15 IP through the first 3 road starts of his career
- Hasn’t pitched 10 scoreless innings over his last 2 turns, both against the Detroit Tigers
Lyles (0-5, 6.11 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 35 1/3 IP.
- Coming off a clunker that saw him yield 7 runs in 4 IP against the Minnesota Twins on Friday
- Velocity is down a tick, and Lyles has been frequently barreled up so far; he has allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 5 starts
Orioles at Royals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles -164 (bet $164 to win $100) | Royals +138 (bet $100 to win $138)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+100) | Royals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Orioles at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Royals 5
Moneyline
Pitching aside, Kansas City is the value side in this series, and the Royals were a solid play Wednesday. However, the starting pitching match-up for Thursday’s series finale is an equalizer. Rodriguez is coming off such a strong start, and K.C. has struggled against righties (.619 OPS).
Lyles is not a pitcher that can be counted on right now.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
No arguments to be made that have the Royals coming out any shinier. A higher score is the likable side of the total, and the pricing here is actually a little more Baltimore-favorable.
AVOID.
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Over/Under
The Over is 10-3 in the last 13 series meetings in Kansas City.
There is certainly some regression due from Baltimore’s bullpen (2.86 ERA), Lyles is iffy, and there is at least the dodgy road-performance angle for Rodriguez.
On a warmed-up afternoon with a double-digit breeze favoring the batters (both bullpens and Lyles yield more fly balls than average), consider the Over. The number has drifted the way of this play overnight, so dial this back to a partial-unit play on the OVER 9.5 (-110).
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