The Philadelphia Phillies (13-13) begin a 3-game series against the Houston Astros (14-11) on Friday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. The Astros posted a 2-1 record against the Phillies in 2022.
The Phillies came away with a 1-0 victory over the Seattle Mariners Thursday. Philadelphia is on a 2-game win streak and has won 5 of its last 6 contests.
The Astros defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0 on Wednesday and had a day off Thursday. Houston has gone 7-3 in its last 10 games and is also amid a 2-game win streak.
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Phillies at Astros projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Nola (1-2, 5.40 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 28 1/3 IP.
- Has given up 2 or more ER in each of his first 5 starts
- Control has been an issue recently as he’s walked 3 batters in each of his last 2 turns
Valdez (2-2, 2.25 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 32 IP.
- Has allowed multiple ER in 3 of his first 5 starts
- Has recorded 5 IP or more in 33 consecutive starts dating back to last season
Phillies at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Phillies at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
ASTROS (-155) is the pick in this contest with Valdez on the mound for Houston. Meanwhile, Nola has gotten off to a shaky start this season.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Unless you can get the Phillies +1.5 at -150 odds or better, then I’d advise against wagering on the spread in this matchup. Even with Nola’s woes thus far, Philadelphia should be able to keep this game close.
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Over/Under
OVER 7.5 (+100) has nice value with Nola allowing 3-plus ER in 4 of his first 5 starts. The Astros have hit the Over in 8 straight games against a team with a losing record.
Houston has hit the Over in each of Valdez’s last 4 starts.
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