The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Tampa Bay Lightning Saturday for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The series is tied 1-1.
The Lightning opened the series with a 7-3 victory at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto Tuesday. The Maple Leafs rebounded in a big way, dropping the Lightning by a 7-2 score in Game 2 Thursday
Tampa Bay went 4-for-8 on the power play in Game 1, while Toronto was 2-for-4. In Game 2, the Lightning went 0-for-3 on the man advantage, while the Leafs were a solid 2-for-6.
Game 2 saw plenty of penalties too. Tampa Bay racked up 12 total penalties and 49 minutes, while Toronto was sent to the box 7 times for a total of 23 PIM. We had 94 total hits in Game 2, and we should see another physical affair in Game 3.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Lightning +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200) | Lightning +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies
Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)
Samsonov was yanked after 2 periods in Game 1 in favor of G Joseph Woll after coughing up 6 goals on 29 shots. He settled down in Game 2, allowing just 2 goals on 22 shots.
Vasilevskiy allowed 3 goals on 31 shots in Game 1, with 2 of those goals coming on the man advantage. Most of the damage happened after the game was mostly out of hand, too. In Game 2, however, Vasilevskiy was a shell of himself, yielding 7 goals on 37 shots.
Vasilevskiy has allowed 14 goals on 92 shots — just an .848 SV% — in his past 3 starts against the Leafs, including the final regular-season start on April 11 at Amalie.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 3
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-120) are worth a look in Game 3, as Toronto looks to build upon its momentum after an offensive explosion in Game 2.
Toronto has won 5 out of its last 6 games on the road while going 4-0 in the past 4 outings when playing on a day of rest.
Despite their Game 1 win, the Lightning are still just 2-5 in the past 7 games overall.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Lightning +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return if you’d like a little bit of insurance.
Tampa Bay is 1-3 on the puck line as an underdog in the past 4, with the only cover coming in the series opener. It has lost the other 3 games dating back to April 5 by 3 or more goals.
PASS.
Over/Under
It’s all about the OVER 6.5 (+100) at even money in Game 3.
We’ve had 10 goals in the first game, and 9 total goals in the second installment of this series. Those totals are par for the course when the Lightning and Leafs hook up, as the Over is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings overall while cashing in 8 consecutive meetings in Tampa.
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