The Iowa State Cyclones (18-12, 9-9 Big 12) and No. 10 Baylor Bears (22-9, 11-7) meet Wednesday in a quarterfinals matchup in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Tip from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is at 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Iowa State vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Iowa State closed out the regular season with just 1 win in the final 5 outings. However, that win on Saturday came at Baylor in a 73-58 rout as a 7-point underdog as the Under cashed. Despite that cover, Iowa State is still just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 games overall.
Baylor is licking its wounds after getting blown out by the Cyclones. The Bears have dropped 3 of the last 5 games overall, while also going 2-3 ATS during the span.
Iowa State also won 77-62 in the 1st meeting in Ames on New Year’s Eve, cashing as a 1.5-point underdog as the Over connected.
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Iowa State vs. Baylor odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Iowa State +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Baylor -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Iowa State +4.5 (-110) | Baylor -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 134.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Iowa State vs. Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 70, Baylor 69
Moneyline
IOWA STATE (+160) just seems to match up well with Baylor (-200), and therefore it is worth a roll of the dice on the moneyline.
It’s difficult to beat a team 3 times during the same season, and the Bears are highly regarded, ranked, etc. But the Cyclones not only beat the Bears, but Iowa State routed Baylor, winning both meetings by 15 points each. After a while, it isn’t simply a coincidence, or luck, but it is expected.
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Against the spread
If you just can’t bring yourself to playing the moneyline, IOWA STATE +4.5 (-110) is still a nice value catching more than 2 buckets from Baylor -4.5 (-110). Plus, the underdog has cashed in 6 consecutive meetings.
Again, a pair of 15-point wins over the Bears makes the Cyclones look like a slam-dunk play, but all records are washed away, and the postseason begins with everyone on even footing at 0-0. Still, it’s hard to make that voice in the back of your head to go away, reminding you about Iowa State’s dominance in this series.
Over/Under
OVER 134.5 (-105) is the play, even though Iowa State’s offense is so-so, and it has a tremendous defense.
While the Under has dominated for the Cyclones, going 6-1 in the last 7 games overall, the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 against teams with a winning overall record.
The Over is also 19-7 in the last 26 for Baylor against winning teams, and 5-1 in the last 6 following a straight-up loss.
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