Bill Connelly of ESPN recently listed the floor, ceiling and biggest variable for each Top 25 college football team for the 2023 season.
As always, preseason expectations are sky high for Texas in particular. In Connelly’s initial SP+ rankings, the Longhorns land at No. 9 in the country with a ceiling of 11-1.
However, the floor is 7-5 and the odds of Texas finishing 11-1 or better is at just 12%.
The biggest variable centered around the struggles Texas has had with closing out close games under Steve Sarkisian over the last two seasons.
Biggest variable: Closing games. In two years under Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns are 9-2 in games decided by more than one score. That’s generally a sign of a team with huge potential. But they’re also 4-10 in one-score finishes, a ghastly record that is almost certainly some combination of horrible luck and a perfect predilection for doing the wrong things at the wrong times. If it’s more former than latter, then with excellent recent recruiting and a top-20 ranking in returning production, the Horns could be geared up for a breakout season. But … was is more former than latter?
Kansas State and TCU were the only other Big 12 programs to make the list.
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