The Dallas Cowboys survived a closer than expected game against the Houston Texans in Week 14. They need an Ezekiel Elliott touchdown run to cap off a 98-yard drive and an interception by second year safety Israel Mukuamu in the final moments of the game. That win gave the Cowboys double digit wins in back-to-back seasons for the first since 1996.
With the NFC East divisional title still within their sights, the Cowboys will travel to east Florida to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Cowboys welcome back offensive tackle Tyron Smith who will make his 2022 debut this week and feature a new toy for Dak Prescott to throw to in veteran wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.
The 5-8 Jaguars have won two of their last three games and have an emerging second year quarterback in Trevor Lawrence that has thrown 10 touchdown passes with no interceptions over his last five starts. The Jaguars are still within reach of the AFC South division title and are two games back in the AFC wildcard picture.
Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.