The Arizona Coyotes are really nothing special so far this season.
They rank in the bottom third of the NHL in most major categories (goals per game, goals allowed per game, and both special teams units) which helps explain why the Yotes are 9-13-4 and ahead of only the tanking Chicago Blackhawks in the Central Division.
Arizona is more or less meeting the dismal expectations many had for the club heading into the year.
Which is also exactly why bettors will want to pay attention to the Coyotes over the next few weeks. Because with the team playing 14 of their next 24 games in Arizona, we’ll finally be able to get a decent enough sample size to learn if Mullett Arena is a true home-ice advantage.
The brand new 5,000-seat facility on the campus of Arizona State University is far below NHL standards and the Coyotes say (hope) it’s just a temporary home. They’re doing their best to lean into the college atmosphere and embrace the tight quarters, but there’s no masking how out-of-place the franchise is at the moment.
And therein lies the advantage. Because if the Yotes can’t make themselves at home in Mullett Arena, opposing teams will certainly be feeling squeezed by the rink, too. Especially as fans continue to pack the place. According to Hockey-Reference’s attendance tracker, Arizona is averaging 92 percent capacity (or about 4,600 fans per game).
In six games so far at home—against fairly superior opponents—Arizona is 3-2-1. More importantly is the fact that the Coyotes are 4-2 at home against the spread because oddsmakers keep making them 1.5-goal underdogs.
Across the NHL, home underdogs are 92-62 overall (59.7%) which already makes for an enticing edge.
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The Coyotes at home have already won as underdogs against the spread against the Florida Panthers (won outright), New York Rangers, Winnipeg Jets and Boston Bruins (won outright). Arizona’s two defeats against the spread at home includes a 7-2 blowout loss to Dallas (-1.5) while the other loss ATS came in the only game so far this year Arizona has been favored at home (Coyotes -1.5 vs. Flyers).
Not only are the Yotes 4-1 as home underdogs, but if you exclude the Dallas game (which was pretty much over from the beginning with Arizona allowing four goals in the first period), they have a plus-one goal differential in those games. Including the Dallas game, that differential drops to minus-four.
The point here isn’t that Arizona is good at home. That isn’t really the case. The point is that they rarely lose at home by more than one goal. But six games isn’t much of a sample size to work with. The upcoming slate of games at Mullett Arena will certainly help test the theory:
- Dec. 16 vs. Islanders
- Dec. 17 vs. Sabres
- Dec. 19 vs. Canadiens
- Dec. 23 vs. Kings
- Dec. 27 vs. Avalanche
- Dec. 29 vs. Maple Leafs
Notably, each of those teams will be making their first appearance at Mullett Arena. Perhaps after awhile the shine of the odd environment wears off, but so far, the Coyotes should enter at least half of those games as underdogs against the spread.
As long as that’s the case, Arizona 1.5 is worth a flier. But this stretch of 14 home games in their next 24 contests should tell us whether or not it’s a sustainable edge.
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