The Miami Heat (10-11) visit TD Garden Wednesday to take on the Boston Celtics (17-4). Tip is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Celtics thrashed the Hornets 140-105 on Monday, covering as 11-point home favorites. Boston pushed their record to 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last 10 and has covered 4 straight. It is also an impressive 10-1 straight up at home this season.
The Heat beat the Hawks 106-98 on the road Sunday, covering as 3.5-point road underdogs. Miami used a +17 second half to jolt ahead. The Heat have covered 3 of their last 5 and are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
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Heat at Celtics odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +325 (bet $100 to win $325) | Celtics -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +9.5 (-120) | Celtics -9.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Celtics key injuries
Heat
- F Jaylen Brown (neck) questionable
Celtics
- F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
- G Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
- G Max Strus (shoulder) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Celtics picks and predictions
Prediction
Celtics 115, Heat 106
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no value here either way as the Celtics, while the better team, aren’t worth 4 units to return 1. Similarly, with Butler out, the Heat may not have the talent to hang with Boston.
Against the spread
LEAN HEAT +9.5 (-120).
Butler may be sidelined, but the Heat are playing some of their best ball of the season, having won 3 straight games. They’ve been able to do that with a solid 3-point defense, ranking 10th in opponents shooting from deep, and the league’s 2nd-best free-throw shooting. The leadership of G Kyle Lowry has aided their success as well.
The Celtics’ success comes from being the No. 1 team in terms of effective field goal rate, but the Heat’s opponents shoot just the 7th-fewest attempts per game.
Miami is a deep enough team with enough leadership to back that it can keep a primetime game without single digits.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 224.5 (-110).
How many points are scored in a game often depends on the tempo, and neither team wants to run. The Celtics rank 18th in pace with the Heat sitting 26th in the NBA.
Both teams also rank in the league’s top 10 in turnover rate, so neither gives the ball up which should allow for fewer transition opportunities. Miami is 2-4 O/U in its last 6 while Boston is 3-4 O/U in its last 7.
Back the Under 224.5 (-110) here.
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