The New York Yankees look to stave off elimination when they host the Houston Astros Sunday for Game 4 of their best-of-7 American League Championship Series. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
ALCS: Astros lead 3-0
Regular-season series: Astros won 5-2
The Astros won the AL West with an American League-best 106-56 record, and nothing has slowed them down in the postseason. Houston is 6-0 in the postseason. In October –over an 11-game stretch including playoff and regular-season contests — Houston is 10-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
New York was shut out 5-0 in Game 3 and has scored just 4 runs on 12 hits in the series. The last time the Yankees offense had a 3-game struggle like this was in late-summer, when from Aug. 9-Sept. 4 the club averaged just 2.79 runs per game. During that stretch, New York notched an anemic .568 OPS.
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Yankees at Astros projected starters
RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. vs. LHP Nestor Cortes
McCullers went 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, and 9.4 K/9 in 47 2/3 IP across 8 starts in the regular season.
- Has a 3.95 road ERA over the last 3 seasons (2020-22)
- In his last 6 regular-season games and 1 postseason start (Oct. 15), has held foes to 2 runs or less and owns a 1.90 ERA over that span
- Has a 2.56 ERA in 53 1/3 career playoff IP (6 shutout IP in 2022)
Cortes made 28 regular-season starts. He went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 158 1/3 IP.
- Was 6-1 with a sparkling 1.95 ERA in 15 home starts in the regular season
- Has pitched 10 innings this postseason, allowing 3 R on 9 H with 4 BB and 5K
- Owns a 9.00 ERA in 3 career starts against Houston
Yankees at Astros odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-220) | Yankees -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 3, Yankees 2
Moneyline
McCullers makes this start on 8 days’ rest. The veteran right-hander has been terrific on extended rest during his career and in recent seasons (3.04 career ERA when rested 6-plus days).
Houston is exhibiting advantages in so many part of the game, and the Astros hit southpaws at a .783 clip (OPS) in the regular season.
HOUSTON (+102) is worth a partial-unit play. Look for +108 for a fully-vested wager amount.
Run line/Against the spread
BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+165).
In their last 7 home games against eventual playoff teams, the Yankees have gone 6-1. All 6 wins have been by multiple runs.
Over/Under
There is some analytics lean toward the Over, but the Yankees have exhibited extreme slumps before, and they could well be clogged in one right now. The Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 Yankees-Astros games, and Game 4 offers up rested back ends for both bullpens and a weather forecast with a pitchers’ breeze blowing in from left-center.
Take the UNDER 6.5 (+100).
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