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The Buffalo Bills (4-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) face off in a much-anticipated Week 6 matchup Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Bills vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
This matchup between 2 AFC juggernauts is a rematch of one of the best postseason matchups in recent memory. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the divisional round last season 42-36, winning the game in overtime after QB Patrick Mahomes only needed 13 seconds to lead the Chiefs down the field to tie things up with a field goal in the 4th quarter.
The Chiefs have beaten the Bills in 3 of their last 4 matchups with the lone loss coming during the 2021 regular season. Kansas City is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Bills during that span, and the Over is 3-1 as well.
The Chiefs and Bills are the top teams in the AFC — no other team in the conference has 4 or more wins. They boast the league’s 2 best offenses in points per game, and the Bills boast the league’s best defense in points allowed. Both squads also suffered their only losses this season in Week 3: Kansas City lost to the Indianapolis Colts, while the Bills were beaten by the Miami Dolphins.
Also see: All Week 6 odds and lines
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Bills at Chiefs odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:18 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bills -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Chiefs +117 (bet $100 to win $117)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills -2.5 (-125) | Chiefs +2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Bills at Chiefs key injuries
Bills
- WR Jake Kumerow (ankle) out
- DT Jordan Phillips (hamstring) questionable
Chiefs
- S Bryan Cook (concussion) out
- CB Rashad Fenton (hamstring) out
- DL Tershawn Wharton (left knee) out
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Bills at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 34, Chiefs 31
Moneyline
This matchup was anticipated so much that CBS refused to let it off its network and reach prime time. That’s understandable since this game features the 2 best teams in the AFC and 2 of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
It’s a tough matchup to predict. Both offenses are rolling, but the Chiefs defense has allowed so many more points than the Bills and struggled against Raiders QB Derek Carr in Week 5. The Chiefs also struggle to contain running quarterbacks, and QB Josh Allen is Buffalo’s best runner on offense. Not to mention the Chiefs will be missing suspended LB Willie Gay Jr., who would normally be the main player called to contain Allen’s running ability.
I’m leaning toward the BILLS (-140) to edge out the Chiefs.
Against the spread
The 2.5-point spread is tricky because this will likely be a close game that could easily be decided by 1 or 2 points. Plus, the line could jump up or down before game time. With the juice on the moneyline so close to the spread, you’re better off AVOIDING the spread and putting your bet directly on the moneyline.
Over/Under
OVER 54.5 (-105) seems like a lock, so that’s my FAVORITE PICK for this matchup. The last 3 matchups between the Chiefs and Bills have gone Over 55 points — even the regular-season game last year when the Chiefs offense was mostly dominated by Buffalo.
Even with the Bills allowing the fewest points per game in the league, the Chiefs should be able to run up the score and keep up with the Bills. Kansas City put up 41 points on the Buccaneers defense, which has allowed an average of just 10.5 points per game in its other 4 matchups. All the signs point to this being a shootout.
More NFL Week 6 odds, picks and predictions
- Parlay: Let’s make some money
- Best picks: Underdogs | Player props | Survivor
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