The Chicago Cubs (73-86) and Cincinnati Reds (60-99) meet Monday at 6:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs at Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Chicago leads 10-6
The NL Central foes are continuing a 6-game home-and-home series: The Cubs took 3 straight from Cincinnati Friday-Sunday.
Chicago not only swept the Reds, but they swept the Philadelphia Phillies in 3 games before that. The Cubs have won 7 consecutive games and 11 of their last 12. Chicago pitching has registered a tidy 1.93 ERA over that stretch and the Cubs have outscored foes 47-26 in that time.
The Reds scored just 3 runs in the 3 game at Wrigley Field. Cincinnati is 1-9 in its last 10 games, producing all of a .505 OPS over that span.
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Cubs at Reds projected starters
RHP Hayden Wesneski vs. RHP Hunter Greene
Wesneski (3-1, 2.33 ERA) has appeared in 5 games, making 3 starts. He has notched a 0.96 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 27 IP.
- Owns a 1.96 ERA as a starter
- Has pitched 110 1/3 IP at Triple-A this season with a 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Greene (4-13, 4.66 ERA) is tabbed for his 24th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 119 2/3 IP.
- Has a 1.06 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 17 IP since returning Sept. 17 from an IL stay (shoulder)
- Threw 97 pitches in his last start Tuesday, his most in a game since July 26
- Has faced the Cubs twice this season: 1-1, 8.00 ERA, 9 IP, 9H, 8 R, 3 BB and 4 K
Cubs at Reds odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-205) | Reds -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Cubs 4
Moneyline
The Cubs were a nice end-of-the-season play based on their runs-vs.-runs allowed profile and the analytics underpinning their offense and pitching/defense numbers. And Chicago responded with a run that has been profitable for Cubs bettors.
But can the run and the value pricing continue?
For this first game in Cincinnati, the matchup on the mound has a needle pointing the other way, so no value can be found: PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Wesneski has been helped along by a favorable .239 batting average on balls in play so far. Greene has been sharp of late, and he has fly-ball stuff which should be aided by a stiff inward breeze in this game.
Still, the Cubs bullpen is in decent shape, and Chicago +1.5 is worth a play at -190 or better. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS LINE.
Over/Under
It’s a play counter to the weather conditions in the forecast, but the top play as listed for this one is the OVER 7.5 (-112).
Both offenses have a bit more to give. The Reds offense has been undone by shaky clutch performances recently. And both starters have their recent numbers colored by turns against a woeful Pittsburgh Pirates offense. A bit of final-week fatigue bounce for both would not be a surprise.
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