The Chicago Cubs (40-58) continue their 4-game series with the San Francisco Giants (49-50) Friday at Oracle Park. First pitch for the 2nd game of this series is set for 10:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won the series opener 4-2 Thursday as Chicago’s defense faltered, committing 2 errors and allowing 4 unearned runs. Thursday’s meeting was their 1st of the season.
The Giants’ victory snapped their 7-game losing skid and ended the Cubs’ 6-game winning streak. Both streaks started before the All-Star break.
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Cubs at Giants projected starters
RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Alex Cobb
Stroman is 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 61 2/3 IP over 12 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Chicago’s 6-2 win Saturday at the Philadelphia Phillies with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Giants: 1 start, a 3-2 loss in San Francisco Aug. 17 while pitching for the New York Mets with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 9 K.
Cobb is 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 76 IP across 15 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in San Francisco’s 7-4 loss Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-4 with a 3.02 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 2 HR and 9.5 K/9 in 9 starts.
Cubs at Giants odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Giants -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-180) | Giants -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Cubs at Giants picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Giants 4
Money line
BET 0.75 UNITS on the CUBS (+120) because the Giants (-145) are still getting priced like they were last season despite not being nearly as profitable.
San Francisco is just 17-19 overall as home favorites of -130 or less this year with a minus-23.3% return on investment (ROI) and an average deficit of 4.28-4.19.
Also, Chicago’s lineup is slightly better than San Francisco’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (100-99), wOBA (.314-.306) and hard-hit rate (30.2-29.8%), according to FanGraphs.
I’m hesitant to lay a full unit on Chicago’s ML because Cobb grades much higher than Stroman in several advanced pitching metrics, per Statcast.
BET the CUBS (+120).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards parlaying the Cubs +1.5 (-180) with another similarly priced line for a better payout since Chicago is 24-15 RL as road underdogs and the Giants -1.5 (+145) are 13-30 RL as home favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-107) because these teams have a combined 16-11 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
But, the Under 7.5 (-115) is more expensive despite most of the market backing the Over, according to Pregame.com, which is suspicious.
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