Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (52-46) roll into Petco Park Friday to begin a 3-game interleague series with the San Diego Padres (55-45) at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Minnesota swept a back-to-back games at the Detroit Tigers exiting the All-Star break and lost 2 straight at the Milwaukee Brewers entering this series.

San Diego won 2 of 3 at the New York Mets last weekend and then lost 2 of 3 at the Tigers Monday-Wednesday.

Friday’s Twins-Padres meeting is their 1st since the 2017 season. Minnesota leads the all-time series 15-5.

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Twins at Padres projected starters

RHP Joe Ryan vs. LHP Blake Snell      

Ryan is 7-3 in 15 starts with a 2.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 81 IP.

  • Last start: Won 8-4 Saturday at the Tigers with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 7 K.
  • Ryan (+4000) has the best odds among pitchers to win AL Rookie of the Year.

Snell is 2-5 in 11 starts with a 4.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 55 IP.

  • Last start: Won 2-1 Saturday at the Mets with 5 scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 July splits: 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 2 HR, 14 BB and 33 K in 4 starts.

Twins at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:28 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Twins +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-210) | Padres -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Twins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Twins 3

Money line

BET the PADRES (-125).

Snell has found his groove this month after a really slow start to the year, San Diego is 6-2 overall following a rest day while the Twins (+102) are 3-7 after an off-day.

Also, San Diego’s bullpen is 8th in WAR (3.1) and 7th in FIP (3.71) whereas Minnesota’s bullpen is 29th in WAR (-0.1) and 26th in FIP (4.29), according to FanGraphs.

Lastly, I’m seeing some “reverse line movement” headed toward San Diego in the betting market. Roughly 60% of the action is on the Twins according to Pregame.com but the Padres’ ML has been increased from a -115 opener.

BET the PADRES (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Padres -1.5 (+170) is such a juicy payout because San Diego is 12-27 RL as home favorites and the Twins +1.5 (-210) are 13-8 RL as road underdogs.

Also, I need to see a couple more quality starts out of Snell before laying it with the Padres on the RL.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).

These teams are a combined 10-16 O/U when these starters get the nod, San Diego’s lineup has subpar numbers vs. right-handed pitching and Petco Park is last in park factor aka the most pitcher-friendly venue in the majors.

However, these teams also have a combined 11-5-2 O/U following a rest day, the Padres are 6-0-1 O/U vs. AL teams and the Twins are 14-6-1 O/U as road underdogs.

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