The San Franciso Giants (48-43) start their 2nd-half of the season Thursday with the opener of a 4-game series at the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers (60-30). First pitch is set for 10:09 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won 3 straight games vs. the Milwaukee Brewers entering the All-Star break and was 7-3 straight up (SU) in the final 10 games of the 1st-half of the season.
L.A. has a 10-game lead atop the NL West and is 12.5 games ahead of San Francisco. The Dodgers are on a 4-game win streak and are 9-1 SU over their last 10 games.
Season series: Giants lead 3-2 but the Dodgers have a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.
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Giants at Dodgers projected starters
LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Mitch White
Rodon is 8-5 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 through 105 IP over 18 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in San Francisco’s 3-2 home loss to the Brewers last Thursday with 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Dodgers: 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 0.83 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 across 2 starts.
White is 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 45 IP over 8 starts and 5 relief appearances.
- Last start: Loss, 7-6, July 12 at the St. Louis Cardinals with 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
- This is White’s 1st career start vs. the Giants.
Giants at Dodgers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:47 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Giants +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Dodgers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-205) | Dodgers -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Giants at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Giants 3, Dodgers 2
Money line
BET 0.75 units on the GIANTS (+102) because we are getting to the party way late in San Francisco. Early “sharp action” steamed the Giants from a +143 opener down to the current price according to Pregame.com.
Rodon has stellar advanced pitching numbers vs. the Dodgers and pitching on 6 or more days of rest is Rodon’s best rest split.
The lefty has a .191/.235/.254 expected batting average, wOBA, slugging percentage slash line and an 86 mph exit velocity in 78 plate appearances vs. active Dodgers batters, per Statcast, and his 3.26 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 3.08 K/BB rate are his career bests across all rest splits.
BET the GIANTS (+102).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Giants +1.5 (-205) are appropriately over-priced given this spot, in which San Francisco is 12-6 RL as a road underdog while Los Angeles is 25-18 RL as a home favorite.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-110).
A slight majority of the action is on the Over 7.5 (-110) but the total has crept down from an 8.5-run opener, per Pregame.com. This type of “reverse line movement” is suspicious because common sense is oddsmakers would adjust the lines according to market movement.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) because the market analysis is my only real handicapping angle on the total of Giants-Dodgers.
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