The St. Louis Cardinals (45-42) host the Philadelphia Phillies (46-39) Sunday at Busch Stadium in their 4-game series finale with the 1st pitch set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly is 2-0 vs. St. Louis this season with a plus-3 run differential (3-0) in those 2 games. The Phillies are leading the season series with the Cardinals 4-1 with a plus-8 run differential (18-10). St. Louis has won just 2 of its last 10 games, and Philly is 7-3 overall in the last 10 games.
Phillies at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Nick Nelson vs. RHP Andre Pallante
Nelson is 3-1 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 41 IP over 22 relief appearances.
- He is serving as an opener for St. Louis’s “bullpen” day.
- This will be Nelson’s 3rd career start and he is 0-1 with a 16.20 ERA (1 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 2 H, 5 BB and 3 K in his 1st two starts.
Pallante is 2-4 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 59 1/3 IP across 6 starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last start: Loss 7-1 Tuesday at the Atlanta Braves with 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA (35 IP, 10 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 3 HR and 4.9 K/9 in 3 starts and 10 bullpen outings.
Phillies at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: -105)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Phillies 3
Money line
LEAN CARDINALS (-120) because they’re 18-11 as home favorites and have been steamed from a -110 opening favorite up to the current number according to Pregame.com, despite their recent struggles and Philly’s hot streak.
Also, I’m not sure Philly’s “bullpen day” is a good idea considering it’s ranked 21st in xFIP and 24th in K/BB rate, per FanGraphs.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 8/31/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not confident enough in the Cardinals -1.5 (+160) to “sprinkle” on their RL, and the Under is my favorite look in this game.
Over/Under
BET a half-unit on the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
There is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market for the total. Nearly 70% of the bets placed are on the Over 8.5 (-130), but a slight majority of the cash is on the Under per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
Also, Philly is 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games, St. Louis is 0-7 O/U in their last 7 vs. teams with a winning record. Phillies-Cardinals is 2-8 O/U in their last 10 meetings, including 1-4 O/U this season.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]