The Cincinnati Reds (26-50) will host the Atlanta Braves (45-33) at Great American Ball Park for the second in a 3-game series with Saturday’s first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Braves leads 3-2
The Braves are coming off a 9-1 beatdown after taking just a 2-1 lead into the 7th inning. Reds’ RHP Joel Kuhnel and RHP Luis Cessa both threw an inning and had 3 earned runs, dooming the home side in the opener. SS Dansby Swanson had 4 hits and 3 RBIs.
Atlanta, counting their win to open the series, is 11-3 over its last 4 road series, which included sweeps of the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.
The Reds also suffered an embarrassing defeat Thursday on the road, losing 15-7 to the Cubs, then came home and again lost by 8. They’ve lost 9 straight home games. Cincinnati is 3-11 over its last 14.
Braves at Reds projected starters
RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Tyler Mahle
Strider (3-2, 3.02 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 in 53 2/3 IP.
- The second-year, 23-year-old from Columbus, Ohio, has 79 strikeouts. For reference, the qualified league leader is averaging just 13.4K/9.
- Take away a brutal 6 ER showing against the Giants in his second-to-last start, and Strider would have just a 2.16 ERA on the season.
Mahle (3-6, 4.53 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 87 1/3 IP.
- The 27-year-old led the MLB in starts last season and is on track to do it again in 2022. He struck out 7 over 5 IP with 0 ER in a start against them earlier this year.
- Mahle had pitched well as of late. Over his last 4 starts, he had a 2.63 ERA.
Braves at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-112) | Reds +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Braves at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Reds 4
Money line
AVOID.
Everything is pointing to Atlanta coming out on top, but with the money line at -190, there’s little value here.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN REDS FIRST FIVE +170.
Atlanta has beaten a team by 3 or more runs twice in their last 11 games. Max Fried putting on a masterclass against Cincinnati shouldn’t be concerning as the Reds should find traction against Strider.
Cincinnati has the 5th-best home batting average, which drops to 25th on the road, so they’ve been far better at GABP. The Reds also have a better home batting average than the Braves do on the road.
Combine that with Cincinnati having the worst ERA in the MLB after 6 innings, and playing the Reds to start the game off on the right foot has value.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-122).
The Reds aren’t the worst team in the NL because they can’t score.
Both the Reds and the Braves, 15th and 5th respectively, rank in the top half of the league in runs. Cincinnati has gone over this total in 8 of its last 10 games.
Considering Fried isn’t on the mound, and both pitchers have struggled at times this season, the Reds should have a better chance to contribute more than one run as well.
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