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The Milwaukee Brewers (44-34) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (31-45) Friday at PNC Park in the 2nd game of a 5-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Brewers lead 6-1
The Pirates surprised the Brew Crew with an 8-7 victory Thursday. Pittsburgh has an infusion of young talent, led by 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes and 6-foot-7 SS Oneil Cruz. The Bucs have won 2 in a row and have their young horse RHP Roansy Contreras on the bump. The Pirates are scrappy, and they’re 12-9 in 1-run games this year.
Milwaukee has yet to hit its stride this season but is starting to get healthy. That equals danger for the rest of the division. The Brewers are 6-4 in the last 10 and 11-9 in the last 20 games. Offensively, it has been a struggle. The Brewers are 23rd in MLB with a .236 batting average, and they rely heavily on the long ball and dominant pitching, which we may see Friday.
Brewers at Pirates projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Roansy Contreras
Burnes (6-4, 2.41 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 93 1/3 IP.
- Outside of the strikeouts, he really hasn’t been as dominant as his numbers indicate. He has a .254 BABIP, and his FIP is 3.12. That means he’s lucky when batters make contact and getting great fielding behind him.
- He’s averaging 8.7 K’s per start the last 6 starts.
- Allowed 2 ER on 4 H with 10 K in 7 IP vs. Pirates in April 19 start.
Contreras (2-1, 2.76 ERA) makes his 8th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 42 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed 2 ER in 10 IP his last 2 starts.
- He features a 96-mph fastball, which ranks in the 85th percentile in spin rate. He complements it with a slider, curveball and changeup.
- He’s 5th-ranked prospect in the Pirates’ system.
Brewers at Pirates odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:28 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Brewers -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Pirates +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (-117) | Pirates +1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Brewers at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Pirates 2
Money line
The Brewers are huge favorites on the road, and it’s for good reason. Burnes has been striking out everyone and their mother over the last month. We’re not throwing more than twice our return on the Brewers, though. LEAN BREWERS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-120). It’s only a lean because we’re depending on an unpredictable offense to come through early on.
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Run line/Against the spread
Negative odds in both directions on the run line, and MIL is just 34-44 on the RL this season. PASS on those and consider a prop bet instead. As mentioned, Burnes has fanned almost 9 batters per start over the last 6 GS. BURNES OVER 7.5 K’s (-170) is worth a small-unit wager.
Over/Under
The Over is 7-0-1 in the Brewers’ last 8 games and 5-0-1 in the last 6 on grass. The Under is 4-0 in Contreras’ last 4 starts at home and 3-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 when the number is between 7 and 8.5. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 between these teams. The Over hit Thursday, and this feels like an Under game with 2 hard throwers. LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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