The Philadelphia Phillies (32-31) and Washington Nationals (23-42) swing into a 5-game series with a 7:05 p.m. ET opener Thursday. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: first meeting.
The Phillies are 11-2 this month. Philadelphia owns a robust .876 OPS in June.
The Nationals have pitched themselves into the basement in the NL East. Washington enters this series on a 4-game losing streak. Since May 30, the Nats are 5-11 with a 7.22 ERA.
Phillies at Nationals projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Patrick Corbin
Wheeler (5-3, 2.84 ERA) has registered a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 63 1/3 IP across 11 starts.
- Owns a 4.70 ERA over his last 5 starts against Washington.
- Has been much better at home (1.49 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) than on the road (5.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP)
Corbin (3-8, 6.65 ERA) owns a 1.73 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 66 1/3 IP over 13 starts.
- Has yielded 3 or more runs in 6 straight starts
- Has allowed an .832 OPS across past meetings with current Philly batters.
Phillies at Nationals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Nationals +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Run line (RL): Phillies -1.5 (-125) | Nationals +1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Nationals 3
Money line
Philadelphia is quite good against lefties and has been excellent against Corbin. The Phils are a strong lean… but only up to -190. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread
Don’t read too much into Wheeler’s road woes. He allowed 7 runs in 3 innings in his 2nd start of the season to skew the numbers. He has a 3.00 ERA in the other 3 road starts.
Corbin’s last-three pitch counts: 106-91-103. And the Nats lefty makes this start on 4 days’ rest.
Philly has been unduly hurt by a 6-10 mark in 1-run games. The club’s run production and allowance (4.83 runs per game vs. 4.37 allowed) tell the story of a team capable of more.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-125).
Over/Under
On a warm, humid, wind-out night in D.C., this total is rather lofty. Too lofty with a for-real Wheeler in action, with a rested Philly pen behind him and with a Washington bullpen that has significantly better expected-ERA figures than its surface numbers.
TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-115).
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